China’s Communist Party surprised the world on February 25 when it announced the plan to scrap the presidential term limit in PRC’s constitution through a brief bulletin. Speculations about what this sudden move means for China and the world flooded international headlines within hours of the announcement. Western scholars and analysts largely held pessimistic views over the potential impact of the Communist Party’s decision, predicting that China would enter a long period of dictatorship with unimaginable impact on its economy, society, as well as domestic and international policies.

Among the long list of predictions, several scholars warn that Taiwan should expect heightened pressure from Beijing as Xi may attempt to toughen his stance on unification. In an interview with South China Morning Post, Dr. Chao Chien-Min from Chinese Culture University in Taiwan suggests that a breakthrough in the existing leadership system in China could empower his control over policies towards Taiwan. With China’s ideology and power likely to originate from one strong ruler in the next decade or so, experts predict that Xi may decide to alter the current cross-strait status quo and allow him to brand his cross-strait reunification agenda as a “national mission” that would complicate situation for Taiwan.

“China will continue its ‘making the hard harder and the soft softer’ strategy,” said Dr. Qi Dongtao, a research fellow at National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute. “Taiwan would expect more [pressure] in political [as well as] international fields, and [improved] policies in non-government-to-government economic and social fields from Beijing. Beijing is trying firmly but carefully to establish a new status quo which will pave the [way] for its ultimate unification goal.”

A Gradual Unification or Military Invasion?

Despite Beijing’s official warning that it could use military force to prevent potential Taiwan independence after the U.S. Senate passed the Taiwan Travel Bill on February 28, scholars think that the likelihood of China forcing unification through military action is low. In an interview with South China Morning Post, Dr. Lee Chih-horng from Nanyang Technological University in Singapore predicts that China would not choose to take over Taiwan through military force as long as Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen doesn’t declare independence. Instead, the plan to remove the timeframe for his presidency could provide Xi the time to assess his options for fulfilling unification.

“He will seek to get Taiwan to accept Chinese sovereignty when he thinks he can do so,” said Dr. Steve Tsang from the SOAS China Institute. “[Whether] to use force or not will depend on his assessment of [the] risk involved.”

By en.kremlin.ru

Instead of forcing reunification through its military might, China is already planning a gradual reunification agenda by squeezing Taiwan’s international space diplomatically while offering equal economic treatment to Taiwanese citizens. According to South China Morning Post, a government restructuring is awaiting the approval of the Chinese Communist Party at the annual meeting. The shake-up will see a new Taiwan policy team exercise its abundant diplomatic experiences to squeeze Taiwan’s international space, aiming to ultimately force the Tsai administration to concede to the 1992 Consensus, which China defines as acknowledging that Taiwan is part of China. In order to increase the pressure on Taiwan, the new team will focus on engaging key players like the United States while continuing to poach Taiwan’s diplomatic allies.

Additionally, China unveiled its plan to offer Taiwanese companies the same benefits that Chinese companies enjoy under China’s investment and tax policies. In an interview with Bloomberg, experts indicate that the plan reflects Beijing’s reunification strategy through economic and social integration. With no time pressure on him after terminating the presidential term limit, Xi likely wouldn’t rush the reunification plan.

“Xi’s longer tenure will enable him to solve the Taiwan issue more patiently in the short run, but more determinedly in the long run,” said Dr. Qi Dongtao. “China will still patiently stick to its peaceful reunification strategy in the next few years. But Taiwan will have to prepare for the final showdown which might consist of a series of radical political and military pressures during the years right before the end of Xi’s tenure. [The timing for the final showdown will] largely depend on how long Xi will be in power.”

Potential Power Shift in the Region

With China likely to be under the indefinite rule of Xi Jinping in the foreseeable future, scholars are predicting a potential power shift in the region. Dr. Qi indicates that while the U.S. still hopes to contain China in the region, there are numerous factors preventing the U.S. from forming effective policies to fulfill that.

According to Qi, China’s economic and military growth will continue to develop beyond any country’s control while China has already become an indispensable partner for the U.S. on multiple global issues, including the North Korea nuclear issue. Lastly, with the Trump administration’s “America First” strategy and the unstable political atmosphere within the U.S., it will be unlikely for the U.S. to form any concrete plan to counterbalance China’s ambitious expansion in the region.

“The U.S. will continue to adopt some largely symbolic resistance against China’s increasingly assertive actions, but won’t risk any substantial conflicts with China,” said Dr. Qi. “Xi’s longer tenure will contribute to the power shift from the U.S. to China in the region.

As the Chinese Communist Party kicks off its annual meeting this week, Xi Jinping’s blueprint for “National Rejuvenation” and his “Chinese Dream” will become clearer to the rest of the world. Even though Taiwan may not have to worry about immediate attempts from across the strait to reunify it with China, Taiwan’s political leaders should start treating the long-term threats seriously and come up with a viable response.