Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen will kick off her journey to the South Pacific on Thursday, scheduling to make state visits to Palau and Nauru while attending the inaugural Pacific Women Leaders’ Coalition Conference in Marshall Island. Apart from visiting the three diplomatic allies, Tsai will also make a brief stop in Hawaii next Wednesday.
Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has described this trip as a move to deepen friendly relationship with all three diplomatic allies. In addition to meeting leaders of all three countries, Tsai is also scheduled to deliver a speech at Nauru’s congress.
As usual, with any diplomatic activity from Taiwan, eyes are also on how China responds.
China’s growing influence in the region
This trip comes amid growing concerns that allies in the South Pacific might be thinking of switching allegiance to China. Radio New Zealand reported that leaders from five countries, including four allies from Taiwan, signed a joint communique at the Pacific Islands Forum last month, demanding equal recognition of Taiwan and China. Experts think this reflects China’s growing clout in the Pacific Island region.
Derek Grossman from Rand Corporation said that the move of issuing the communique is a sign that the door is open to improve ties with China, and he views the statement as a move to “quell Chinese outrage over a diplomatic row in September 2018 in Nauru when the Chinese delegation struggled to secure the proper visas to attend the Pacific Islands Forum.”
“I think the Micronesian President’s Summit communique is just the latest tangible manifestation of China’s growing clout in the Pacific Island region,” said Grossman. “However, the statement is also designed to signal greater balance between China and Taiwan as it mentions the need to respect both equally.”
Grossman points out that since many of Taiwan’s remaining allies are developing countries without resources, they would benefit tremendously from China’s Belt & Road Initiative. To counter China’s growing influence in the region, Grossman said western countries are also trying to increase their investment in the region.
“[These developing countries] would particularly benefit from the much-needed infrastructure development,” explained Grossman. “For these reasons, countries such as the US, Australia, New Zealand and Japan are doubling down on their investment to prevent Beijing from making additional inroads into the region.”
Losing the Soloman Islands?
Despite China’s growing attempt to woo over Taiwan’s allies in the South Pacific, Grossman believes that Tsai’s trip isn’t scheduled out of desperation. In his view, Palau, Nauru and Marshall Island remain stable allies to Taiwan and the Soloman Islands is probably the next diplomatic ally in the region that could switch allegiance to China.
“In my view, of the six countries in Oceania that recognize Taiwan, the one most at risk of transitioning to China is not on the itinerary: the Solomon Islands,” said Grossman.
In a report published on Monday, Lowy Institute in Australia argues that as the Soloman Islands prepares for national elections in April, the issue of diplomatic relations will become center of the discussion agian. The Soloman Islands’ Prime Minister Rick Hou’s party has suggested that they would review diplomatic relations with Taiwan if they were reelected. Additionally, several leaders have emphasized the rise of China as a key factor to the Soloman Islands’ trade and foreign relations. The possibility of switching diplomatic recognition to China has been mentioned several times since 2013.
Grossman analyzes that as China is the Soloman Islands’ biggest trading partner and the small Pacific nation requires the scale of investment that China is able to provide, it is understandable that the Soloman Islands might be considering a possible diplomatic switch. He also points out that Tsai is not visiting the Soloman Islands’ on this trip perhaps in order not to be viewed as interfering in the Soloman Islands’ domestic affairs due to the upcoming election.
“Nevertheless, mixed messages have come out of the Solomon Islands, with the ruling party at first saying it would review Taiwan ties if reelected, and then backing off that position,” said Grossman. “It will be interesting to see what happens there going forward.”
(Feature photo from Presidential Office of Taiwan, CC BY 2.0)
