Battle Royale: Taiwan’s 2019 Presidential Primaries

Editor’s note: this article has been updated to include report of Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu agreeing to enter the KMT primary.

As Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) prepare to select their candidates for Taiwan’s upcoming 2020 Presidential election, both camps have run into political deadlocks. Though political parties in Taiwan have most frequently selected candidates that naturally rose to the top of the party in the volatile post-democratization political environment, both the DPP and KMT are seeing candidates that appeal divergent parts of their traditional voter base.

Though the current sitting president, Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), belongs to the DPP, her unpopularity during her three year in office has brought on a challenger, William Lai. Lai previously served under Tsai as premier. Though he has not differentiated himself much compared to Tsai on most policies, he is seen as having a much stronger stance on independence, on which Tsai has kept a cautious ambiguity. While Tsai has handled the China-Taiwan relations carefully, a point praised by American decision makers in Washington DC, Lai is seen as the candidate who more explicitly supports Taiwan’s de-jure independence.

On the other side of the aisle, the KMT has seen a diverse roster of candidates emerging. Amongst them are Eric Chu (朱立倫), Mayor of New Taipei City from 2010 to 2018 who also ran against Tsai in 2016, and Wang Jin-pyng (王金平), long time speaker of the Legislative yuan who feuded with President Ma Ying-Jeou (馬英九) during the Sunflower Movement. Terry Gou (郭台銘), founder and chairman of Foxconn Group, has also recently announced his campaign after having made high-profile media appearances. One of these include appearance at an event celebrating the 40th year anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act, where he told Legislator Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴), at a panel she was moderating, to “look at [him] in the face” after forcefully raising a question after Q&A was over.

Another KMT candidate has been expected to run, and finally just announced on June 6. Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) took the traditionally DPP city in an upset election last year, and now is quickly rising as Chinese language media in Taiwan focused in on him. Though Han has mobilized his popularity to build personalities and political memes around himself, with (in)famous sayings such as “get rich fast” and “exports out, people in,” some have raised concerns of his popularity as a threat to democracy. He has recently gathered tens of thousands of supporter to march at the Ketagalan Boulevard, where he announced his willingness to “break all his bones” in support of the Republic of China.

American style primaries in Taiwanese culture

Having multiple challengers vying to be nominated the presidential candidate is not new even for Taiwan’s young democracy, but the activeness of candidates suggests that Taiwan is moving towards a US-style primary, where candidates for the presidential election are mostly selected by the electorate rather than by party leaders in closed-door discussions. While primaries inherently pits candidates against each other within the party to differentiate their policies, Taiwan’s conflict-avoidant culture has created an idiosyncratic mix of modesty and activism.

Many presidential hopefuls have invoked non-political and even religious figures for “inspiration.” KMT’s Eric Chu and Terry Gou told Taiwanese media that they were encouraged by “a grandma in the town of Dansui” and “Sea Goddess Mazu” to run for president respectively (Chu in the 2016 election cycle). Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) told Japanese media Asahi Shimbun that his strategy of “waiting for the right time to announce his campaign” draws inspiration from Tokugawa Ieyasu, who became Shogun of Japan after the death of his capable masters.

Though Lai’s campaign runs against Tsai as a clear challenger aimed at preventing a second term for Tsai, factional infighting can very much result in wins for the KMT. But despite disputes within the party over polling mechanisms, which have delayed the primary, the dates have been recently decided after a series of fracturing debates.

The issues with polls

Unlike in the US where individual states hold primaries for voters to decide their party candidates, telephone polls are the dominant method for primaries in Taiwan. Yet, within the DPP, Lai and Tsai supporters have debated over whether polling should be conducted through landlines only, or include mobile phones. Landlines polls are perceived to favor Lai, whose voter base consist of old guard Taiwanese nationalists, at the disadvantage of Tsai, whose voter base consists mostly of younger Taiwanese who no longer use landlines.

The KMT has not decided on a mechanism to select their candidate, but it has been more common for the party to do so through closed door meetings. While Kaohsiung mayor Han enjoys a popular following and has said he would enter the primary, he seemed to have favored being nominated directly by the party as revealed through an interview with Commonwealth Magazine. Han was probably worried about a process filled with uncertainties, as other candidates could potentially devise primary mechanisms that work against Han, or even cheat, to win. Even though Han has a popular mandate, he is a relative newcomer who could disrupt the pecking order within the party; he might have preferred to have the party leaders simply hand him the nomination than to compete for it. 

Lacking US-style primary elections, both parties have resorted to the imperfect method of polling, with DPP combining both landlines and mobile phones as a compromise between the Lai and the Tsai camp. The biggest issue for polls in Taiwan is its traditional volatility and novelty. While in the US established organizations such as Pew Research Center and Gallop have had decades of experience with finding representative polls, Taiwan has not had such a tradition given the youth of its democracy.

China’s influence

While Taiwan’s democracy continues to evolve and adapt, it now has to deal with a greater force from the outside. China has long been suspected of meddling in Taiwan’s affairs, with Chinese investment and control in many aspects of life in Taiwan. Taiwan-based Canadian ex-intelligence officer and journalist J. Michael Cole points out in a paper published by Prospect Foundation how the Want Want group, which owns CTi News, CTV Company, and China Times, has been receiving sponsorship from and is likely influenced by the Chinese government.

Overtly, China has also presented a carrot-or-stick incentive structure for Taiwanese voters to select pro-Beijing candidates. Since the election of Han Kuo-yu, China Times has reported a surge of Chinese tourists in Kaohsiung. Though the prosperity is brought on by a pro-Kaohsiung mayor, it is very likely that the outcome is a result of Chinese policies. Through policies such as control over the number of travel permits and visas given out, China has been able to acutely manipulate the number of outgoing tourists, and by extension the perception of prosperity in Taiwan.

What to expect in the next six months

Since Taiwan’s democratization, the KMT’s electoral strategy has been focused on closer ties with China, especially economic integration. Proposals such as a Taiwan-China peace agreement and free trade agreements have been the central pillar of KMT candidates’ platforms. Despite the rapid economic growth they promise, what Taiwan will have to accept as preconditions for these agreements remains a concern.

Though various KMT candidates differ over their specific platforms, in general one should expect a KMT president to push on closer Taiwan-China economic ties and steps towards political integration. The KMT is a firm supporter of maintaining the institutions and name of the “Republic of China,” commonly seen as a remnant of authoritarianism and a symbol of repression by Taiwanese nationalists.

On the other hand, the DPP will most likely emphasize diversifying economic interests away from China, and maintaining Taiwan’s sovereignty and democracy. Though President Tsai has preached on sustainable growth and pushed on pension reforms, these policies are less popular to older Taiwanese familiar with the rapid growth during the late 20th century “Taiwan Miracle.” She has pushed for closer US-Taiwan relations as the US-China relations deteriorates over political, security, and economic issues. Ex-premier Lai, on the other hand, has proposed to push harder to maintain Taiwan’s de-facto independence, though specific policies have not been announced yet.

While the KMT is still undergoing a period of inter-candidate debate and hashing out differences in policy and campaigning strategies, the DPP has announced that polls to select a candidate will be done from June 10-14, with debates and candidate list announced prior.

(Feature photo not of any currently registered primary candidates in Taiwan)