“We stand with all freedom-loving people of Hong Kong.” tweeted President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) on Sunday. “In their faces, we see the longing for freedom, & are reminded that Taiwan’s hard-earned democracy must be guarded & renewed by every generation.” Indeed, Taiwanese society has consistently showed solidarity with those who have fought for freedom against the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), as it did last Tuesday, when over 1,000 attended a vigil for the victims of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.
Hong Kong is in the midst of a dramatic political upheaval. An estimated 1 million people rallied through the streets on Sunday to protest a controversial extradition bill that its government said would close a legal loophole. Critics say, however, that it could erode Hong Kong’s judicial independence. The bill would allow the government, which leans pro-Beijing, to grant China extradition requests. Lawyers, journalists, politicians and civil society have raised concerns this could facilitate the surrender of prominent pro-democracy activists, dissidents and journalists considered to be anti-CCP by Chinese authorities.
While Hong Kong fights, Taiwanese populists cozy up to China
While Taiwan still remains some distance from facing the same problem, the 2020 presidential election is approaching, and as Beijing demonstrates it will not give up on annexing its claimed territories, Taiwan could be on the brink of new challenges to its sovereignty. Tsai and William Lai (賴清德), the two Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) primary candidates, have vowed to fight annexation attempts, but other contenders have remained less clear on their stance towards the issue.
Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜), the most popular of the five Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential contenders, has consistently advocated closer ties with China. Han has overcome numerous scandals since soaring to the Kaohsiung mayoral seat, but the most worrying has been a reported visit to Hong Kong’s Beijing liaison office, which prompted concern that he engaged in political negotiations. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) called his visit an “extremely politically sensitive act,” and critics called the trade deals he secured “gifts from the CCP.” When asked about the rally on Sunday, Han simply said “I don’t know, haven’t heard about it.”
Business mogul and Foxconn CEO Terry Gou (郭台銘), who is another popular contender, stands with his party’s view that the “1992 Consensus” should be the basis of cross-strait relations, and claimed that Taiwan is an “inseparable part of China.” Gou’s business empire was built in China, which has also prompted concern over whether he can serve in Taiwan’s best interests.
Current Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), who will run as an independent candidate, has also demonstrated, at the very least, a desire to keep Beijing placated. Ko has remained vague on his opinion of the “one country, two systems” arrangement, but his insistence that Taiwan and China are of the same family has sparked concern.
Last year’s local elections and current public opinion polls show Taiwan’s pro-independence politicians fall behind the China-friendly populists. As it has been recognized around the world, frustration over stagnant wages and unemployment can mean success for purveyors of hollow slogans, rally cries and grandiose promises—even if they are never truly fulfilled. Populist politicians find success in giving people hope they can improve their daily lives.
There are, however, elements of daily life many of us take for granted that should be counted as blessings in an age where autocracy rules almost half of the world. Last week’s Tiananmen Square vigil wouldn’t have been possible without the freedom of assembly and political expression Taiwan granted its citizens after decades of fighting. A vote for a China-friendly president could seriously hurt Taiwan’s hard-earned democracy, and accommodating China’s vision of Taiwan could lead to the gradual destruction of its sovereign rights. One needs only to look at the dimming candle of democracy in Hong Kong to see that once the Communist Party finds an inroad, it works slowly but insidiously to achieve its goals.
China is already inside Taiwan
Even without an official inroad to Taiwan, Beijing has already employed some of the techniques it uses in Hong Kong to cause disarray within Taiwanese society. Media manipulation, which has plagued Hong Kong since before its 1997 handover to China, was a top concern during Taiwan’s 2018 elections. The National Security Bureau (NSB) in March found that China had exercised spin control via local media outlets to divide society and create a more favorable view of the CCP. In Hong Kong, coverage of the Tiananmen Square massacre and subsequent June 4 demonstrations has been downgraded in media and broadcasting services, some of which have explicitly stated their aim is to tell a positive story of China. Officials believe Chinese-sponsored fake news may have even been responsible for the outcome of last year’s local elections.
Moreover, the CPP appears to be using new avenues of technology to proliferate divisive messages in Taiwan. In April, advertisements were placed by Chinese companies on popular job banks seeking individuals to run social media content mills. The advertisements, however, asked for people who “lean towards unification” to shape public opinion. Administrators of social media pages around the same time began receiving buyout requests, from who they identified were likely Chinese government employees.
In both Taiwan and Hong Kong, Chinese pressure has led public and private entities to engage in self-censorship. Hong Kong’s Tai Kwun Center for Heritage and Arts cancelled a high-profile literary event with Chinese dissident Ma Jian last year, stating that it did not want to become a platform for “political interests.” Taiwan’s Eslite Corp., which operates chains in China, gave similar reasons for refusing to screen a movie last week that features footage from the Tiananmen Square massacre. The company is also guilty of pulling human rights and Tibet-related books from its shelves in Hong Kong. In both places, it has demanded staff remain tight-lipped.
The CCP has also attempted to infiltrate the education systems of both Taiwan and Hong Kong. Attempts by Hong Kong’s legislature to introduce “national education” reforms in 2012 prompted a demonstration and eventual hunger strike by protest group Scholarism, who claimed the revisions would “brainwash” youth. The protest was paralleled in Taiwan when in 2015, the Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) administration introduced textbook revisions that established China and Taiwan as more closely linked throughout history. High-school students stormed the Legislative Yuan, demanding the government dropped the new “China-centric” guidelines.
What a China-friendly president in Taiwan could mean
Ma’s two terms were a high point for cross-strait relations in terms of business, industry and peace, but the closest Taiwan has come in recent years to succumbing to Hong Kong’s fate. The Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement his administration proposed, shot down following the Sunflower Student Movement, would have seriously compromised freedom of speech and national security, according to experts at the time. A new “peace treaty” with China, which Chairman of the KMT Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) said his party would push for, could pose similar threats.
Any agreement would see Taiwan needs to give up its mission to become recognized as an independent nation-state. It would also mean downgrading national defense and the termination of weapons procurement agreements with the U.S., which China regularly expresses its anger towards.
There are no legal precedents to guarantee the KMT would not reverse the law passed last month guaranteeing a public referendum on any cross-strait agreements. Even if it is not reversed, having an ally at the helm of the state would widen the channel of China’s influence in Taiwan. Beijing would likely employ more military threats to scare the public into believing an invasion is inevitable, and that securing peace would be the only way to guarantee national safety. It would also amp up its attempts to sway public opinion via the media and private businesses.
A China-friendly government would be less inclined to speak out about human rights abuses against its own people, such as those apprehended by Beijing for criticizing the CCP. The fate of activist Lee Ming-che (李明哲), who was abducted and ended up in detention after crossing into China, would be sealed. Dissidents who seek refuge in Taiwan would likely receive far less help, even though the current government is already hesitant to offer extended assistance due to fears of reprisal. Taiwan could expect more underhanded attempts to undermine its freedom of speech, democracy and sovereignty.
At a time when citizens of Hong Kong are rallying en masse to protect their autonomy against a government that is friendly to China, Taiwan should think carefully about the leader it chooses and the relationships he or she is likely to pursue. The 2020 presidential elections will be a juncture for the fate of Taiwan, and if its citizens wish to protect the country’s sovereignty, they should choose a government that stands up against the CCP.
(Feature photo courtesy Keep Taiwan Free)
