What’s Next for Taiwan After Han Kuo-yu’s Victory in the KMT Presidential Primary?

Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) will be the presidential candidate of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) after decisively winning the party’s primary on Monday, completing a rapid political ascension to become the KMT’s challenger to incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) in Taiwan’s January 2020 presidential election.

Han defeated four challengers in a polling process that began on July 5 and lasted for 10 days before concluding today. The polls, conducted by landline calls to voters regardless of party affiliation, followed three rounds of televised debates held on June 25, June 29 and July 3 across three TV channels.

Though the transparency and publicity of the presidential primary process was unprecedented for the KMT, it was also extremely fast-paced—polls opened just two days after the conclusion of TV debates. Here is a rundown of what has happened over the past two weeks—and what the result of this primary could mean for Taiwan in the coming months.

The winner

As the victorious candidate, Han will be representing and shaping KMT policies in the coming months. Han campaigned for mayor of Kaohsiung with an infamous “get rich fast” slogan, promising to set up the city as a free-trade zone with China. He now carries his vows to enrich Taiwan to the general election stage.

Han’s popularity swarmed through Taiwan even before he announced he would run for the KMT nomination—a phenomenon which was dubbed the “Han wave.” Voices of concern quickly emerged over the groundswell of support propping up Han; Taipei-based political commentator J. Michael Cole called the Han phenomenon a threat to Taiwan’s democracy.

His popularity was also likely aided in part by coordinated influence campaigns involving people in China. According to a Foreign Policy article by journalist Paul Huang, Chinese cyber operatives set up pro-Han Facebook groups to promote his popularity. CTi TV—which is owned by Tsai Eng-meng (蔡衍明), a Taiwanese businessman with clear pro-Beijing leanings—aired around-the-clock coverage of Han which drastically boosted his exposure. CTi TV’s parent company, the Want Want China Times group, could be the target of coordinated influence operations by Chinese actors.

The process

The way the KMT conducted its primary is the first of its kind, as Taiwan transitions to adopt more characteristics of a United States-style presidential election.

The first round of debate focused mostly on the topics of foreign policy and national security, the second on youth, culture, and education, and the third on economic and energy policy. The debates spanned two hours each, summing up to a total of six hours for voters to watch the candidates duke it out.

Throughout the primary, the clear frontrunners were Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) and Terry Gou (郭台銘)—the well-known businessman who headed Foxconn, which produces parts for Apple’s iPhone, and emerged as Han’s strongest challenger after entering the race in April.

Han, Gou, former New Taipei mayor Eric Chu (朱立倫), and two longshot candidates generally used their platforms to speak against the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and emphasize Taiwan’s ties with Chinese culture. Some policy proposals were in general agreement with the ruling DPP, while some were outright in opposition—especially their proposed alternatives to the DPP’s strategy toward consolidating ties with the United States.

The policies

Most of the candidates used the second debate to put a heavy emphasis on improving the prospects of Taiwan’s youth. Taiwan’s low birthrate is a concern, and as the country moves toward becoming a super-aged society, pension reform became a major issue in the first two years of Tsai’s term.

Although Taiwan does not operate on a United State-style left-right political spectrum, KMT candidates eschewed the party’s traditional warmth toward conservative policy by suggesting more progressive approaches toward fostering youth-based economic growth in Taiwan, such as establishing state housing and furthering current plans in setting up innovation science parks. 

The KMT, as a party, has been very focused on economic cooperation with China. Here, a division in the KMT voter base became evident. Han spent much effort accommodating to local factions, and thus gained popularity among farmers and small business owners. Gou appealed largely to the KMT’s elites and middle class, making a concerted effort to build a strong image in the Taiwanese press.

Some proposals made by KMT candidates seemed out of touch with Taiwan’s political realities. Outsider candidate Chou Hsi-wei (周錫瑋) proposed that if the U.S. would not sell Taiwan F-35s, its most advanced fighter jet, Taiwan should reach out to China to purchase J-20s. Paradoxically, Chou also proposed to “take back the mainland” using democratic values. Attempting to describe the economic hardship Taiwanese youths face, he quoted a Taiwanese-language song lyric: “Riding my worn-down scooter down the road; my life feels like dog shit.”

Chang Ya-chung (張亞中), an international relations professor, proposed that Taiwan should be united with China under a “one country, three constitution system.” Chang is one of Taiwan’s strongest proponents for cross-strait unification and, to that end, is a member of the Cross-Strait Unification Association (兩岸統合學會), established in 2008 to promote its namesake goal.

Terry Gou, having promised to set up a committee to implement his vision for a state childcare program for children aged 0-6, also pledged to put his own money in its funding in case of shortfalls in the budget. Gou, a waishengren whose family migrated to Taiwan during the KMT’s post-Civil War retreat from China, often came across as reminiscent of the times before democratization when personal and party wealth was integrated with state wealth in Taiwan.

What’s next?

Both Terry Gou and Eric Chu did not show up to this morning’s announcement of the campaign results, likely as the results were apparent with unofficial polls constantly showing Han’s decisive edge over the two non-fringe candidates.

Though Taiwan has just moved to a more democratic model for selecting its presidential candidate, it likely still has some learning gaps before the tradition of running primaries for presidential election matures. That polling agencies were revealing candidates’ popularity with competing polls during the official polling process, for example, has likely influenced the outcome in itself.

Lin Zhi-huan (林至桓), currently the deputy secretary-general of Taiwan Youth Association for Democracy, told Ketagalan Media that, in his personal view, he sees the role of DPP voters’ preference in Han’s election as well. Since polls surveyed all households of Taiwan, rather than just registered KMT voters, DPP voters had a say in the KMT primary. Having Han as the KMT candidate, said Lin, may allow the DPP to frame the contest as one between pan-Green and the pan-Blue voters, marginalizing the influence of another potential presidential candidate, the independent Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲).

Lin highlighted that Han came from an anti-establishment position relative to the KMT power hierarchy. “Coming from Kaohsiung myself, I could see that before his mayorship many were frustrated by the status of city, which has been ran by DPP for over 30 years,” Lin said. However, he also brought up concerns with Han’s revolutionary approach. “He is not at the core of the traditional KMT circle of policies and party work,” he said. “It can be worrying since he does not have that many connections with the KMT.”

Lin also raised the possibility of Gou launching an independent bid for president after losing the party primary. “Will Terry Gou run for election, since he did not sign the pre-primary agreement the party asked each candidate to sign to pledge support for the winner?” he hypothesized. “If he does, the DPP might as well have already won.”

Nevertheless, Han’s quick rise from a relatively unknown politician to the KMT presidential candidate suggests that KMT voters—as well as the general population of Taiwan—wishes to see someone outside of the KMT old guards. As mayor of Kaohsiung, Han has bombarded voters with seemingly unrealistic policy proposals that he has yet to implement—such as the construction of a “ferris wheel of love” (愛情摩天輪)—and he may need to change his election tactics by making achievable promises. 

With less than six months leading up to the election, Taiwan’s democracy continues to evolve to adopt new forms. Despite so, attempts by Chinese actors to subvert Taiwan’s democracy and sow division will also continue to test the endurance of a nation which Tsai Ing-wen recently dubbed a “beacon of democracy.”