Xi Jinping Stokes Fear With Travel Ban to Taiwan

On July 31, the Chinese government announced it was suspending issuing individual travel permits to the residents of 47 cities previously allowed to travel to Taiwan. Tour groups and business travelers will still be allowed.

This measure, the latest in a series of increasingly hostile gestures towards Taiwan, was executed abruptly, taking effect the very next day and leaving prospective travelers in the lurch. Like most of Beijing’s actions toward Taiwan, however, this measure is primarily for domestic consumption.  

The People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership, quoted a government spokesman stating—with authoritarian logic—that their action was actually the fault of the Taiwanese.

“Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities have undermined the foundation of a mainland tourism scheme’s trial run,” said Ma Xiaoguang, spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office. “However, the DPP authorities kept advocating ‘Taiwan independence,’ producing hostility toward the mainland and provoking confrontation between the two sides of the Strait.”

Since the DPP was elected to power in 2016, Beijing has grown increasingly belligerent towards Taiwan, viewing President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) policy of maintaining the cross-strait “status quo” as hostile to their intention of annexing the country. This is not the first time they have used cutting back on tourist numbers against Taiwan, or other countries, to send a political message: Tourist numbers from China dropped significantly after the president’s inauguration. Initially painful, the tactic didn’t work as a punishment for Taiwan in the long run, as the Tsai administration shifted tack and successfully attracted large numbers of tourists from other countries, well in excess of the lost Chinese tourists.

Taiwan responded quickly to the latest cut with the announcement of domestic tourism subsidies, and President Tsai noted she had ordered the government to prepare for this action months ago. If the intent is to punish Taiwan, it is not very effective—and they are reducing their own leverage going forward.
Beijing is aware of this: It is not their primary motivation.   Some analysts think the latest move is intended to influence the upcoming January 2020 presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan. Ma Xiaoguang of the Taiwan Affairs Office said on state television: “I believe compatriots on both sides of the strait hope relations will return to a correct track of peaceful development, allowing travel by mainland residents to Taiwan to return to normal as soon as possible.”Beijing operatives are indeed actively working to influence and subvert Taiwan’s elections, but this move is unlikely related to any such strategy. In the past, openly belligerent acts have backfired, boosting politicians with stronger sovereignty credentials. Shooting missiles off the coast of Taiwan in 1995 and 1996 boosted a landslide victory in Taiwan’s 1996 presidential election by Taiwanese nationalist Lee Teng-hui (李登輝). Earlier this year, Xi Jinping’s Jan. 2 speech on Taiwan, in which he refused to rule out the use of force to assert sovereignty over the nation, boosted the current president in the polls by giving her a perfect opportunity to show her nationalist strength.

By now, the regime in Beijing is aware this doesn’t work.

These days, political influence activities are more subtle—for example, by buying out or influencing media, social media activities and “fake news” campaigns. Cutting off the ability of individual Chinese to travel to Taiwan will only complicate the efforts of those Chinese nationals who allegedly enter Taiwan to spy or conduct other infiltration activities.  That may have the unfortunate effect of making local spouses of Chinese origin the target of unwanted fears and suspicions. Though it may make these efforts a bit more difficult for some Chinese agents, there are plenty of Taiwanese proxies, loyal Chinese spouses and online communication platforms to keep up their efforts.

Another possibility is that the suspension may intend to further insulate the people of China from exposure to free elections, free expression and external criticism of the CCP. This summer of discontent in Hong Kong has been directed at the government in Beijing’s efforts to curtail their freedoms, and China’s Great Firewall internet censorship system is far from leak-proof—unvarnished news of events in Hong Kong does trickle through unfiltered to certain internet users. So, too, is growing international criticism of the regime over a range of issues, including the cultural genocide in East Turkestan (Xinjiang), Tibet and other minority regions. Protests inside of China are also fairly common. As Xi Jinping has tightened the grip of the CCP over all aspects of Chinese life, fear of alternative political models are likely growing in the party. Not only do Chinese need permission to leave the country; an unprecedented “social credit” score system being rolled out in many municipalities is increasingly being used to cut off people with low scores from access to travel, including plane and high-speed rail tickets.

It is telling that individual travelers⁠—those who can roam freely⁠—have been cut off from Taiwan, rather than tour groups. Chinese tour group itineraries in Taiwan are at best steered clear of anything that might offend Chinese political sensibilities, and at worst are directly dictated by Chinese-owned firms. A study by Ian Rowen found that Chinese in tour groups were stage-managed in such a way as to confirm, rather than shake, notions of CCP claims to Taiwan.

A darker agenda is also at play. Michael Turton, a commentator on Taiwan politics and my co-host on Current Affairs Taiwan, put it this way: 

“The Chinese people are like any other people: they do not want war. Yet, war over Taiwan (or one of Beijing’s many other territorial demands) appears to be all but inevitable. Hence, a major headache for Beijing is convincing its people that war is both necessary and legitimate. The “economic incentives” and other policies that Beijing aims at Taiwan are part of this effort. They will never change Taiwanese minds, but Beijing can use them to document to its own people that it has made every effort to annex Taiwan peacefully, and regrettably, the Taiwanese have rejected these actions. In the best this-hurts-me-more-than-you style, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will say to its people, “We’ve tried everything. Now we have to attack Taiwan.” In providing “economic incentives” to Taiwan, Beijing is selling the coming war to its people.”

This article, published in the state-run tabloid Global Times on the suspension of individual travel to Taiwan, excellently illustrates Michael Turton’s point: 

“Mainland tourists have made up around 25 percent of Taiwan’s inbound tourists and brought great wealth to the island. But public opinion controlled by the pro-secession camp, and the DPP authority itself, has never shown any gratitude. The DPP has constantly incited anti-mainland sentiment, largely infecting ordinary Taiwan people’s attitudes toward mainland visitors. Complaints from mainland tourists about the unfriendly treatment they received in Taiwan have increased drastically.

The mainland’s decision to suspend the program demonstrates the government’s responsibility for tourists’ personal safety during the special period. Individual visitors are more prone to various attacks than those in tour groups. And they may fall into the trap set by Taiwan secessionist forces to undermine cross-Straits relations. Such preventive measures are quite necessary in the current situation.

The program was launched to benefit local economy, but the island’s attitude has made it meaningless. The Tsai authority needs to bear the consequences of its frantic political line.”

Chinese tourists are usually treated very well in Taiwan and are in no danger, so the “prone to various attacks” line is pure scaremongering. Blaming this illusory threat on the DPP administration for being “pro-secession” is to ignore that the administration’s policies regarding sovereignty are in the center of the political spectrum and supported by a majority of the country (57% in May); in 2016, the DPP was elected in a landslide on this very platform. This is about demonizing and dehumanizing: The CCP is manufacturing enemies on Taiwan out of thin air.  Taiwan is no threat to Beijing. This is Beijing creating justifications for its insistence on being a threat to Taiwan.

Decades of propaganda from Beijing has been used to try to convince the Chinese people that until Taiwan has been “liberated,” the Chinese nation cannot truly be a great, unified nation again. Xi Jinping personally has based his authority and hs cult of personality on his “Chinese Dream,” aimed to “rejuvenate” and “reunify” the “motherland.” Anything that contradicts the party narrative will be viciously condemned, regardless of how petty it may seem: T-shirts in Toronto and children’s artwork, for example, along with education and the state-controlled media.

A recent article in the Global Times stated: “Revised Chinese high-school history textbooks for this year’s fall semester highlight national sovereignty, territorial integrity and ethnic unity, as the textbooks more clearly state that the regions, including the Diaoyu Islands, South China Sea, Xinjiang, Tibet and Taiwan, have been part of China since ancient times.”

In reality, the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands have never been Chinese, the South China Sea has only been partially occupied by China in the last few decades and East Turkestan (Xinjiang), Tibet and Taiwan were independent of China for almost their entire history—only all being brought together with China under the Manchurian Qing Empire, whose territorial claims the People’s Republic of China uses to justify its own.

The CCP needs to maintain a drumbeat of either “good news” or “bad news” to maintain its legitimacy and keep the pump primed should Xi Jinping decide on going to war. If the news is “good,” that is an indication that Taiwan politicians are supinely acquiescing to Beijing’s will and helping to erode Taiwan’s sovereignty. If the news is “bad”, Taiwanese politicians, like President Tsai, are either holding firm with the “status quo” or, as some other politicians advocate, more actively opposing the CCP’s will. “Good” news helps build the illusion in China that their “compatriots in Taiwan” wish to be annexed into China. “Bad” news is used to create villainous foils thwarting “virtuous” CCP efforts to reach out to Taiwan to “peacefully reunify the motherland.”

What won’t help the party sustain its power is no news. Expect more to come.