Political Power Players to Watch, Part 2: Freddy Lim, Huang Kuo-chang, William Lai

If you’re feeling overwhelmed by the constant twists and turns of Taiwan’s electoral cycle, you’re not alone.

This is the second part of a series of handy summaries profiling Taiwan’s political power players currently “in play.” Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidate, Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu’s (韓國瑜), are set in their paths for the near term, so they’re off the board for now.

In Part 1, we took a closer look at Foxconn founder Terry Gou, Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je and KMT power broker Wang Jin-pyng. In Part 2, we’re profiling New Power Party (NPP) legislator Huang Kuo-chang, former premier William Lai, and the newly independent Freddy Lim.

Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌)

Originally an academic, Huang rose to national prominence as one of the leading lights of the 2014 Sunflower Movement, which saw students occupy the legislature in protest over a proposed trade bill with China. He joined the newly-formed New Power Party (NPP) before Taiwan’s 2016 national elections and was elected party chair. He ran for, and won, a seat in the legislature, which he still currently holds. In the process, he survived a recall election over his views in support of marriage equality.

Huang has since stepped down from the party chair position and has announced that he is not running for re-election for his legislative seat. In what appears to be a tussle for control of the NPP, legislators Freddy Lim (more on him later) and Hung Tzu-yung (洪慈庸) have left the party and Handy Chiu (邱顯智) has stepped down from the party chair position. After a failed bid for the party chair position by a young Taipei City council member, Legislator Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明)—widely viewed as a Huang ally—has taken the role.

Huang had previously stated that if the NPP became a subordinate ally (a so-called “little green”) of the DPP, he would leave the party. Many others in the NPP opposed this, preferring to work with the DPP to develop with a coordinated strategy to defeat the KMT. With the exits of Lim and Hung, however, it appears that Huang and his allies have won control of the party.

Powers: Widely viewed as highly principled. Has influence in the NPP and more broadly throughout civil society and with younger voters. 

Weaknesses: Viewed as inflexible at times and can come across as haughty and cold. Hated by social conservatives. 

What does he want? It is widely thought that he hopes to become the Taipei mayor, and use that as a stepping stone to eventually winning his ultimate goal: the presidency. 

The Speculation: That he may make a run for Taipei mayor, and/or work with current Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) to establish himself as Ko’s preferred successor.

Quick Analysis: Speculation that Huang wants to run for Taipei mayor is rife, to the point it is beginning to appear to be an open secret. Huang has not said anything to that effect in public—but this would be in character. It could be one reason for the NPP reaching out to the fellow post-Sunflower movement party, and heavily Taipei-centric, Social Democratic Party (SDP). An NPP-SDP alliance in Taipei would be helpful, as both parties are represented in the Taipei city council.

The big question: Would Huang work with incumbent mayor Ko Wen-je and/or his newly formed Taiwan People’s Party (TPP)? The notably strictly ideological Huang has previously been critical of Ko, so it would be out of character. However, it would make political sense. Many NPP supporters are Ko supporters, so there is overlap there. Having the incumbent mayor grooming Huang as his chosen successor would go a long way toward bringing the coalition of supporters that fueled Ko’s successful mayoral campaigns into Huang’s camp. It would also open the possibility of Huang being trained personally by Ko.

In the short term, one huge variable is whether Ko will join the current presidential race. It looks for now that Ko is more likely to back a presidential run by Foxconn founder Terry Gou (郭台銘), but the option of his own run is still on the table for now. Either way, this is Ko’s second term as Taipei mayor; as he cannot run again in 2022, he might be starting to think about a successor. For Ko, the advantage would be to restore some of his luster with “light-Green” voters and shore up his youthful base. Ko originally rose to prominence as a supporter of DPP candidates, but he has recently been surrounded by more pan-Blue politicians, especially in his new political party. Huang would be a big “get,” especially if Ko could convince Huang to join the TPP.

While not impossible, there are some big barriers. The personalities and political stances of Ko and Huang are fairly different. Issues like marriage equality and relations with China could become a major issue. The other barrier is that, since Ko has formed his own political party, him and Huang are from different parties. Huang, for now at least, has shown no signs of leaving the NPP, and why would he? He’s a major force there and the party still has some support nationally.

All this being said, Ko is practical and may be willing to think out of the box. His new party notably allows members to also be members of other political parties, which is an interesting twist that allows for unorthodox political alliances.

In the short term, the most likely scenario is that Huang will try for a party list legislative seat and bide his time until the next Taipei mayoral election (assuming Ko doesn’t run for president). That frees him up from campaigning in his district and allows him to campaign and form bonds and alliances nationally. That would keep him in the game politically if the NPP gets enough votes. However, that’s a big “if.” That may have been one of his calculations—as the highest profile NPP member, he will be needed to campaign as hard as possible nationally to keep the party above the crucial 5% level to be eligible for at-large seats in the legislature.  

William Lai (賴淸德)

On March 18, William Lai joined the DPP presidential primary to challenge incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen. This was unprecedented. It is uncommon to challenge an incumbent in the same party for any position—but challenging a sitting president was considered a shocking betrayal by many in the party. Lai had only months before been Tsai’s premier, and he had said then he wouldn’t run against her. Initially, Lai had a formidable lead in the polls, and the challenge gave the president almost no time to mount a campaign. But the primary date was pushed back as the rules were bent, and bent again, by DPP officials to give the president a chance to fight off her challenger. And she did, to great success, beating Lai handily. Lai, previously Taiwan’s most popular politician, has been lying low since. 

Powers: Previously highly popular. As the former mayor of Tainan, he has experience at both local and national level. Popular with the Taiwan independence wing of the DPP.

Weaknesses: He got beat in the primaries, removing much of the sense of invincibility he once had. The perception of disloyalty may dog him.

What does he want? The presidency. 

The Speculation: Will he join the ticket as the DPP vice presidential nominee? Will he launch an independent run for the presidency, or at the head of one of two new pro-independence parties that have been announced in recent weeks?

Quick Analysis: Lai will probably stay a loyal party man and support the president and DPP during the campaign season, but without much enthusiasm. He called for party unity after his loss, but his challenge may have damaged his previous “heir apparent” status within the party, so he may need to rebuild bridges if he wants to seek the presidency in the future. To rebuild those ties, he may need to swallow his pride and humbly accept the vice presidential nominee position, in spite of previously saying he wouldn’t take it. Lai and Tsai have reportedly not been in touch recently, but that may change as the campaign season heats up and party unity becomes an issue. The attitude towards him by some in the party may be: “You threatened party unity, now it’s up to you to fix the damage.” It’s also an open question if Tsai would actually want Lai on the ticket. While the party unity devotees will push for them to have a joint ticket, the lack of enthusiasm on the part of both suggests they will only do it if they feel they have to.

However, Lai has recently met with people associated with the two new pro-independence parties: the Formosa Alliance and the Taiwan Action Party Alliance. A William Lai supporter group has also begun a petition drive to prepare the required number of signatures to file for a presidential run by the deadline in September. These meetings are most likely intended to shore up relationships and possibly help serve as a bridge between them and the DPP. It is unclear if Lai has any direct connection to the petition or not, or if it is just die-hard supporters trying to push him back into the fray.

If Lai were to run as an independent (likely with the backing of the new parties) or as the candidate of one of the parties, this would signal that either he thinks the rifts caused inside the DPP due to his primary run are so deep as to be irreparable, or that he—due to ambition, idealism or both—genuinely thinks a run outside the DPP would be a good idea. This would be a significant move. The DPP is a huge and powerful party, and he is a major player in that party. That’s a lot to risk. If he does make this move, it will say a lot about his relationship with the DPP and his thoughts on its future. It would also likely fracture the DPP, with some members supporting Lai and possibly bolting the party.

Freddy Lim (林昶佐)

Freddy Lim is a rockstar. Literally. He’s the front man of heavy metal band Chthonic. He’s also the former local head of Amnesty International, a concert organizer, and is well known for his support of various human rights causes, including freedom for Tibet. One of the co-founders of the NPP, Lim won a legislative seat in Taipei. However, he just left the party, switching his allegiance to independent. His reason was the NPP’s refusal up to that point to openly support Tsai Ing-wen for re-election and to team up with the DPP to work together to defeat the KMT. Soon after, legislator Hung Tzu-yung—who Lim had originally recruited to the NPP—joined him, causing the NPP to lack enough seats in the legislature to form a caucus.

Powers: He’s a rockstar, widely respected for his dedication to human rights and considered idealistic. He’s popular with the younger demographic and has a genuine charisma.

Weaknesses: His heavy metal persona doesn’t appeal as much to older demographics 

What does he want? To destroy the KMT and boost Taiwan’s sovereignty.

The speculation: Will he remain an independent, or join a party?

Quick Analysis: Lim’s departure from the NPP left a huge question unanswered: Was he throwing down the gauntlet to get the NPP to cooperate with the DPP, or was he throwing in the towel on the NPP altogether? With the resignation of Handy Chiu as NPP party chair and the ascension of Hsu Yung-ming to the NPP chair position, it appears that, for now, the NPP is in the hands of Huang Kuo-chang and his allies. So the original question is now probably moot, as it is now unlikely that Lim will rejoin the NPP any time soon. It is obvious that he and his allies do not see eye-to-eye on key issues with Huang Kuo-chang and his people. However, Lim has made it clear he is still willing to work with NPP members who share his values and continues to remain close to some still within the party. 

This leads to yet another huge question: Will Lim remain an independent, or will he join a party? Being in a party is very helpful in that it opens up the possibility of receiving government subsidies and forming a legislative caucus, among other perks intended to boost the fortunes of larger political parties and discourage fringe parties and independents.

 
Could he join Ko’s Taiwan People’s Party? In the past, he has shown some support for Ko, but when he announced he was leaving the NPP, he said he wasn’t planning on joining the TPP. He could yet change his mind, but it is unlikely he will make any move for now. He will likely be watching what happens in the NPP, watching what direction the TPP takes, and taking stock of his options. That the TPP has some strongly pro-China figures in its orbit, however, will very likely turn him off.

Could he follow Sunflower Movement superstar Lin Fei-fan (林飛帆) and join the DPP? Freddy did leave the NPP over their failure to work with the DPP, he openly supports Tsai Ing-wen, and he has friends and contacts in the party. However, while he supports much of what the DPP stands for, he likely is not fond of the more socially conservative wing of the party, the ex-KMT patronage faction members, and others who represent the old way of doing things. If he reckons he could help improve the party—which it appears Lin Fei-fan thinks—he might give this some serious consideration.