China’s Growing Grip on the South Pacific

Retired US Naval Intelligence Officer James E. Fanell has just came back from a trip to the South Pacific with Australia’s 60 Minutes. There, he saw several alarming signs of expanding Chinese influence in the region. He presented his findings at a December 9th event at the Global taiwan Institute, where he related what he observed as China’s increasingly ambitious expansion into the Pacific to its recent poaching of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies in the region.

Changing paradigms in the South Pacific

Moderated by retired Foreign Service Officer John Tkacik, Fanell presented to a crowd consisting of diplomats and policy professionals. His co-panelists were two foreign service officers, Vincent Chao from Taiwan’s de facto embassy and Jennifer Spande from the US Department of State.

Throughout his travels, Fanell observed how China has increasingly inserted its influence into the Pacific islands. Within a week during this September, Beijing managed to convince the governments of both Solomon Islands and Kiribati to switch from recognizing the Republic of China (Taiwan) to the People’s Republic of China. 

China has invested significantly in the region, and Fanell suspect that China has been cultivating development deals for a long time. Fanell noted that a guard at a gold mine recently purchased by Chinese state owned company in the Solomon Islands was wearing a uniform with China’s national flag stitched onto the shoulder.

Fanell related his findings to a 2012 image found aboard a Chinese frigate. The image consists of a dragon’s head overlayed on a map of East Pacific, expanding in three directions – a clear indicator of Beijing’s expansionist ambition. Fanell had strong words for what he saw as a concerning image, which was used to motivate Chinese sailors.

“Even though they say they want win-win…they don’t want to displace America… [that] they don’t want to be a hegemon, they’re lying. That’s what they want to do in this area,” he said.

Though China has often used language such as “win-win” and “not seeking hegemony” on its official documents, speeches by Communist Party Chairman often include words that alludes to Chinese nationalism, such as the “Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation.”

“It’s the Chinese Communist Party and their long view – their view to 2049 and becoming the global leader,” according to Fanell, that’s leading to these aggressive tendencies. Beijing has a stated goal of modernizing its military by 2020. It also intends to have a world-class military by 2049. 

Fanell made note of the many World War II battlefields he visited, where less than a hundred years ago American troops fought and died there. China’s expanding influence over these islands today seem to have a symbolic importance; however, Fanell also noted that even during WWII, the United States understood the strategic importance of these islands.

Competition in the South Pacific and Taiwan’s difficult situation

Even though China appears to be targeting Taiwan when it poaches diplomatic allies and have Pacific countries switch recognition, US interests and influence are also significantly affected.

China’s expansion into the region has a heavy strategic component. A report titled Beyond the Dark Side of the Moon published by Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR, 財團法人國防安全研究院) suggest that China also has interests in the airspace above these islands. China has displayed its capacity to build artificial islands in the South China Sea recently, and may potentially construct some in the South Pacific in the future.

China’s expanding space and satellite capability is also gathering attention. China operated a space tracking station in Kiribati before 2003. After the diplomatic switch, the station may be used for military purposes. This is potentially concerning, given that China is nearly completed the deployment of its Beidou Navigation Satellite System (BDS), a system analogous to the US-created GPS system. The expansion of the technology will not only allow China to better survey the world and collect intelligence, but also make guided missiles more accurate.

On the economic front, China can often offer superior investment and aids, direct the activities of state owned enterprises, and even bribe politicians individually to expand its influence in the region. This is a part of China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative, which aims to expand China’s power projection through high-profile investments and has been labeled “predatory economics” by the US.

What this means

These recent developments have placed Taiwan and US interests increasingly closer together. Even though the lost of diplomatic allies have been more symbolic than substantive in the past, these recent moves into the Pacific Islands is a sign that China’s expansion is becoming a serious threat to both Taiwan and the US.

Taiwan’s strategic interests in the region is slowly becoming aligned with those of the US. As China sweeps these Pacific countries into its zone of influence, the US would potentially face more difficulties accessing its democratic allies in the Indo-Pacific region. In the past, friendship between the US-led democratic bloc, which would include Taiwan and Australia, and the Pacific nations, have offered free passage for US military ships.

China’s developing capacity in space and ability to more accurately guide its missiles means that it can better deter potential US military ship from entering the region. This is highly concerning for Taiwan, since US support in case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is highly uncertain and dependent on the ever-changing military power dynamic. Rand Corporation, in a 2017 report, points to China’s developing anti-surface capacity as a major developing threat. The report suggests that though guided missiles were not a major threat for US ships intervening in a Taiwan invasion scenario in 1996, it now is as of 2017.

As pointed out by retired Foreign Service Officer John Tkacik, ironically the US now has a need to call for countries that recognize the ROC to maintain their support of Taiwan, without itself recognizing Taiwan or promising military support in case of an invasion. The US still upholds its version of the “One China Policy” and maintain that its ties with Taiwan are “unofficial”.

Despite the lack of official diplomatic relations, the US and Taiwan are working closer than ever in areas like arms purchases, cybersecurity, and training of professionals. Events like the December 9th event at GTI provide unofficial channels for the unofficial Taiwanese embassy to conduct unofficial dialogues with US officials.

Though the prospect of normalizing the US-Taiwan relations still has many obstacles ahead, what is clear is that friction between the US and China is increasingly giving Taiwan the opportunity to prove itself as a worthy partner. Depending on the results of the coming Taiwan election for President and Legislative Yuan in January, as well as the US presidential election in November, Taiwan may be able to further cement this relationship with a needed ally.