Election 2020: Highlights from the Legislative Races

This analysis highlights key outcomes from the 2020 legislative elections, including the results of selected contests of interest. For more information on how Taiwan chooses its lawmakers, please see the Ketagalan Media guide to legislative elections.

Overall Scorecard

The ruling Democratic Progressive Party 民主進步黨 (DPP) maintained its majority in the Legislative Yuan, winning 61 out of 113 seats, despite losing several geographic constituencies and five of its party-list seats. Though polls in early 2019 had suggested a rout for the pan-Blue camp, support for the Chinese Nationalist Party 中國國民黨 (KMT) drained away in recent months, thanks to an unpopular presidential candidate and a widely-despised party list. The KMT only gained three additional seats, in line with C. Donovan Smith’s analysis last November.

Seats won by all parties entering or dropping out of the Legislative Yuan in 2020.
Compiled by Kevin Hsu. Source: Central Election Commission.

The Taiwan People’s Party 台灣民眾黨 (TPP) stormed into parliament for the first time,* with five legislators, while the New Power Party 時代力量 (NPP) eked out three. The new Taiwan State-Building Party 台灣基進黨 (TSP) managed a single win in a geographic constituency, but two incumbent parties will exit the Legislative Yuan, having lost all of their legislators: the People First Party 親民黨 (PFP), and the Non-Partisan Solidarity Union 無黨團結聯盟 (NPSU), whose lone indigenous representative chose to run as a Blue-leaning independent.

Five independent candidates—not to be confused with the NPSU—won seats this election. At least three of them are likely to caucus with the pan-Green coalition (including the DPP, NPP and TSP), and will number 68 legislators total.

*Editor’s Note: The Taiwan People’s Party, established in 2019 by Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je 柯文哲, should not be confused with the original Taiwanese People’s Party, the earliest political party in Taiwan, founded by activist Chiang Wei-shui 蔣渭水 in 1927. Despite having contrary political aims, Mayor Ko’s new political venture adopted the same name in Chinese as the historical party—台灣民眾黨—perhaps deliberately, thus giving rise to public complaints about name infringement and misuse of a historical asset.

The distribution of seats by political party shows how the pan-Green coalition (made up of the DPP, NPP and TSP) forged a solid majority. Created by Kevin Hsu and Lucien Ong.

The “Taiwan Squad”

The international press dubbed five dynamic candidates as Taiwan’s “squad”—united by their progressive politics, appeal to young voters, and commitment to defending Taiwan’s independent status. The “squad” moniker was originally used to describe four progressive minority Congresswomen in the United States, who represented a change from politics as usual. Of the five Taiwanese politicians, three were elected or re-elected to office.

Lai Pin-yu 賴品妤, New Taipei: At 27 (she turns 28 in March, before inauguration), she will be one of the youngest legislators to hold office in Taiwan’s history. She was also known for her cosplay skills and spectacular costumes, before entering politics as a Sunflower activist. She will take over the New Taipei district of Shizi now occupied by NPP leader Huang Kuo-chang.

Freddy Lim Tshiong-tso 林昶佐, Taipei: The incumbent legislator, formerly with the NPP, left the party over disagreements on coordinating with the pan-Green coalition for the 2020 election. Lim believed the specter of a resurgent KMT was a serious threat to Taiwan that required cross-party collaboration. The “third-force” candidate—and heavy metal musician—ran as an independent, winning re-election in traditionally pan-Blue leaning Zhongzheng-Wanhua District.

Chen Po-wei 陳柏惟, Taichung: A dark horse under the banner of the Taiwan State-Building Party (TSP), a radical party advocating independence, he pulled off a surprise win over the son of a politically influential mafia boss to gain the TSP their first and only legislative seat. The TSP, formerly known as the Radical Wing, is based on Kaohsiung and has run candidates in the past four elections, without success–until now.

Hung Tzu-yung 洪慈庸, Taichung: The NPP incumbent will leave the legislature, after a heartbreakingly close race. She lost by a few hundred votes to the KMT legislator who represented the district before 2016. Hung had stormed to victory in 2016 as a political rookie, pledging reform after her brother had died from abuse in military service. She had joined Freddy Lim in leaving the NPP last year hoping to put nation above party.

Enoch Wu Yi-nong 吳怡農, Taipei: A former special forces office strong on defense issues and outspoken about the threat China poses to Taiwan. Wu turned heads with his good looks and galvanized the public over the KMT’s unpopular pro-China party list. He lost to incumbent KMT legislator Wayne Chiang Wan-an 蔣萬安, a scion of the Chiang clan, who was also lauded for his looks. Wu’s future remains bright, as fanatical supporters pledged to continue backing him: one female fan commented, “If he still looks good in tears, then he is truly handsome.” Chiang is likely to parlay his legislative triumph into a future bid for Taipei mayor.

Indigenous Representation

Aboriginal voters have long been seen as an “iron vote” for the KMT, due to the Nationalists’ largess distributed through “service stations” 服務站 fuwuzhan in indigenous areas. (See an informative report from Al Jazeera on this topic). However, things may be starting to change: for the first time, the DPP won a seat in the Mountain aboriginal constituency, while retaining its seat in the Plains aboriginal constituency. The pan-Green camp now holds two of six seats reserved for Taiwan’s indigenous community.

As more young persons from aboriginal backgrounds have moved to live in urban areas—some 50% now reside and work in cities—there are also calls to allow indigenous candidates to run in traditional geographic constituencies. Finally, the DPP won 13 at-large party seats, and the 15th candidate on the DPP party list is Atayal pastor Omi Wilang. If the party shifts at-large legislators to other government posts, there is the possibility he could be seated as an additional legislator with indigenous background.

Blue wave abated

The KMT underperformed relative to expectations. Projections in the first half of 2019 had shown them sweeping back into power. However, gaffes by presidential candidate Han Kuo-yu 韓國瑜 and bad-faith actions by party chairman Wu Den-yih 吳敦義 to pack the KMT’s at-large legislator list with controversial, pro-China figures, tanked the party’s approval ratings. Ongoing protests in Hong Kong against Beijing’s repeated violations of the territory’s freedoms further underscored the risks of embracing authoritarian China. Though the KMT maintained a degree of public support, while siphoning off PFP voters, to gain four more seats overall, the outcome was perceived as an enormous electoral failure, leading Wu to finally step down as leader of the party.

Demographic and social changes increasingly weigh against the KMT’s electoral prospects, but the party has resisted change. It is unclear if its leaders will choose the path of reform, or continue down an outmoded and conservative path. Incidentally, Wu ranks 14th on the party list, but the KMT only secured 13 seats through the PR party vote. It remains to be seen if he bumps anyone off the list to keep his place in the legislature.

New parties, though not the New Party

The Taiwan People’s Party, Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je’s personally-branded political vehicle, will enter the Legislative Yuan in its very first election, with a surprisingly strong showing of 11.2% of the party-list vote. However, none of the TPP constituency candidates succeeded, showing the limits of Ko’s charisma. Nonetheless, the third-place finish marks the party as a significant new force in Taiwanese politics that can support or disrupt legislation, and may foretell a presidential run by Ko in 2024.

The NPP fared better than expected, despite fears the party was disintegrating last summer with the departure of two influential legislators (Hung Tzu-yung and Freddy Lim), followed by the party chair. The NPP increased its support to 7.7%, building on its 6.11% showing in 2016, but has been reduced to three seats in total, after losing its constituency races. There are whispers that popular NPP personality Huang Kuo-chang, currently fourth on the PR list, may push someone out to once more assume a legislative seat.

The Taiwan State-Building Party (TSP) showed up on the electoral radar with 3.16% popular support, as well as winning a geographic constituency. A minimum 5% threshold is required for a party to gain at-large party seats, but another important threshold is 3%, as parties that attain that level of support may access public funding for campaigns. As stipulated in the Political Parties Act of 2017, any political party that obtains 3% or higher of votes cast in a legislative election is eligible for a subsidy of NT$50 per vote annually over a four-year period, which helps fund their activities over the next cycle.

Some have suggested that had the 2.41% support for the environmentally-focused Green Party gone to the TSP, the combined votes would have surpassed the 5% threshold to qualify for at-large legislators. While the TSP is on an upswing, the Green Party now faces questions over its viability.

James Soong’s presidential run did not significantly help the PFP, a member of the pan-Blue coalition. In this election, support for the party dropped to 3.66% from 6.52% in 2016, and it will exit the Legislative Yuan. Support for the unificationist New Party dropped to 1.04%, far below the qualification threshold for public campaign financing.

New immigrants and old districts

Nantou County Councilor Lo Mei-ling 羅美玲, an immigrant from Malaysia, will enter parliament as the fourth-ranked candidate on the DPP’s party list. Cambodian-born KMT legislator Lin Li-chan 林麗蟬, an advocate for the rights of “new immigrants,” will not return to the legislature, as she was left off the party list. Other unconventional legislators who took office in 2016 were also excluded from the KMT’s list of nominees—such as reform-minded Jason Hsu Yu-ren 許毓仁, who bucked party leaders to advocate for LGBT equality—and replaced by controversial (and older) pro-China candidates.

DPP stalwart Bi-khim Hsiao 蕭美琴 lost her seat after representing Hualien for four years. An influential voice in the party’s foreign policy circles, Hsiao focused on local matters for the mountainous and lightly-populated district in the east. Hsiao was bested by independent candidate and former Hualien magistrate Fu Kun-chi 傅崐萁, who recently served jail time for malfeasance, but nonetheless retained vestigial support. Hsiao will likely be asked to serve in President Tsai Ing-wen’s 蔡英文 administration.

Maps comparing the results of Taiwan’s 2016 and 2020 legislative elections. Seats, represented as hexagons, had to be shifted in the 2020 district map, due to population changes. Created by Lucien Ong.

Demographic change affecting electoral districts

Based on updates to population in the household registers, Tainan City and Hsinchu County were each apportioned one additional seat in the legislature, while Kaohsiung City and Pingtung County each lost a seat. In the new Tainan constituency, DPP candidate Wang Ding-yu 王定宇 soundly defeated Hung Hsiu-chu 洪秀柱, the former KMT presidential candidate and chairwoman. Hung has a record of shocking the public with extreme pro-unification statements, and barely gained a third of the votes in the contest, compared to 58.8% by her opponent.

In a closer contest, the new Hsinchu County seat went to the KMT, whose candidate was able to prevail with a 36.2% plurality. The DPP polled 34.6%, while third parties had sizable support in that district. According to results from the CEC, the county also leaned slightly blue in the presidential election, by less than 2000 votes out of 325,000 cast. (A visualization produced by Bloomberg allows users to, at a glance, explore vote totals in the presidential election district-by-district.)

All of Kaohsiung’s remaining eight districts elected DPP legislators, while Pingtung voted in a DPP incumbent and an independent candidate with DPP membership to fill its two seats.