No, Taiwan Does Not Need to Rely on Trump for Strong U.S. Support

Taiwan briefly took center stage in the United States Democratic Party primary in February when CNN host Anderson Cooper asked Bernie Sanders what he would do if China used military action against Taiwan.

Sanders did not avoid the question. The United States, he said, has “to make it clear to countries around the world that we will not sit by and allow invasions to take place.”

The Sanders campaign is on its last legs (yes, it’s technically still alive) after frontrunner Joe Biden notched several key state primary victories in March, giving him an almost insurmountable delegate lead. But Sanders’ comments generated conversation in Taiwan about whether a Democratic president would commit to maintaining a Trump-era U.S.-Taiwan relationship that, Taiwan foreign minister Joseph Wu 吳釗燮 said last year, is “probably better than at any time before.” 

As president, Donald Trump has helmed a Taiwan-friendly administration that has consistently reiterated support for the country and resisted efforts by Beijing to suppress its international presence. It’s closely associated with the notoriously hawkish China policies of many Trump advisers, especially in the era of the trade war. Naturally, that’s left many Taiwanese worried that, should Trump lose the presidential election in November, the next administration could be softer on China—and thus less supportive of Taiwan.

The world is in the throes of a pandemic that threatens to change life as we know it—both now and in the future. One possible effect would be a stronger Asia-Pacific, potentially led by an emergent China, and there are concerns that Biden would opt for cooperation over conflict with Beijing, to the detriment of Taiwan.

But would a Biden presidency really harm U.S.-Taiwan relations? There are plenty of reasons to think that it will not—and that, regardless of who comes out victorious in the 2020 elections, the friendship between Taiwan and the U.S. will remain strong.

For starters, we need to take a closer look at Biden himself. Last year, he said he does not view China as “competition” to the United States, prompting criticism from both Mitt Romney, a Republican senator and the party’s 2012 presidential candidate, and from Sanders, who pointed out that it was “wrong to pretend that China isn’t one of our major economic competitors.” 

Biden has also been criticized for comments he made in 2001 saying that Taiwan, then led by Chen Shui-bian 陳水扁, should not “go declaring independence, because we are not willing to go to war over your unilateral declaration of independence.” It is important to add, however, that he also said that if China tried to unify with Taiwan by force, the U.S. would “provide the military means in terms of material to prevent that from happening.” This reflects his support for maintaining the status quo and the “China engagement” policy—Taiwan, under President Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文, has opposed moves toward a formal declaration of independence in the first place, instead stating in January that Taiwan is already independent and has nothing to declare.

Biden’s willingness to engage with China is often interpreted to drum up skepticism of his support for Taiwan. In reality, however, Biden has shown his support for the democratic island in many ways throughout his extensive political career.

Biden was one of the 90 Senators that voted in favor of the Taiwan Relations Act in 1979, which to this day continues to be a pillar for the Taiwan-U.S. relationship. He was also among many of the United States political personalities to congratulate Tsai after her victory in Taiwan’s January 11 presidential elections. Shortly after the results were announced, Biden took to Twitter to congratulate her and called for stronger ties with Taiwan. In the said tweet, he also attributed Taiwan’s strength to its free and open society. (Biden notably referred to Tsai as “President Tsai” and referred to “Taiwan” as a like-minded democracy—strong terms that even some Taiwan supporters around the world avoid.)

Biden has also shown his dissatisfaction with the current Chinese Communist Party leadership. In his presidential debates, Biden has described Xi Jinping as a “thug” and criticized his treatment of Uighurs, as well as his handling of the Hong Kong protests adding that Xi “is a guy who is—doesn’t have a democratic, with a small D, bone in his body.”

This comment might reflect a change of his previous views regarding the “China engagement” policy—views which largely predate the Xi era and its rapidly escalating domestic and international aggression—and open the possibility for an improved relationship between the United States and Taiwan.

This is not to say that the Trump administration hasn’t done a lot to improve the relationship between the two countries, something that can be traced back to the moment that Trump took a congratulatory phone call from Tsai back in 2016. 

Under the Trump administration, there have been many positive developments in the said relationship, like the inauguration of the new American Institute of Taiwan (AIT) in 2018, the signing of the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act, which called for more U.S. engagement in the Asia-Pacific region, and the signing of the Taiwan Travel Act, which has as its objective to increase the travel and visits at all levels, including state officials and business leaders from both Taiwan and the United States. 

Just recently, the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative Act, or TAIPEI Act, was signed into law by Trump after being passed by both houses of Congress. The act authorizes the U.S. State Department to consider “reducing its economic, security and diplomatic engagements with nations that take serious or significant actions to undermine Taiwan.”

The approval of this law has large implications concerning the remaining allies of Taiwan in Latin America. Many of those countries have a long history of friendship with the United States, including close investment and trade ties. The fact that the United States is launching a threat to “reduce its economic engagements” with nations that “undermine Taiwan” is surely something that will make any of Taiwan’s allies in that region think twice about making a switch from Taiwan to China. 

Trump has also taken a very aggressive stance towards the Chinese government following the developments of the COVID-19 crisis that has left more than 140,904 confirmed infections and at least 2,405 people dead in the United States. President Trump has insisted on calling the pandemic the “Chinese virus,” a practice that he has defended from criticism by stating that he is simply pointing out where the virus originated from. He also explained that the usage of the word “Chinese” to describe the virus came in response to comments made by Chinese officials who claimed without evidence that it might have been the U.S. Army “who brought the epidemic into Wuhan.” These developments illustrate the tensions between the U.S. and China and Trump’s apparent insistence to escalate these developments as the pandemic worsens in the U.S. and around the world.

The hostile relationship between the world’s two biggest economies, along with the many laws approved in support of Taiwan by the Trump administration, have led many to believe that the best thing for Taiwan is that Donald Trump remains in office. 

However, there are many other aspects that need to be evaluated before jumping to this conclusion. For starters, there’s the fact that while the laws mentioned above were indeed signed by Trump, they were approved by wide bipartisan congressional consensus. Congressional leaders in both parties have long records of staunch support for Taiwan, and laws passed to support Taiwan have moved through the House and Senate regardless of which party is in control. This will not change.

There is also no reason to believe that any president—Biden, Sanders or Trump—would veto any piece of legislation in support of Taiwan presented to them.

The other aspect that needs to be taken into consideration is that the relationship between the United States and China has eroded significantly during the past few years, and this is something that will not fade away in the near future. The effects of the coronavirus might linger for years. Besides, there are other issues that will remain unresolved involving ideological conflicts, human rights issues, and the technological battle for the development of the 5G network. These factors will affect the U.S.-China relationship regardless of who comes out victorious in the next election. 

The final aspect to be taken into consideration is that the United States government has already reached the first stage of a trade agreement with China. Trump has said that the second phase will be probably negotiated after his reelection. If the trade agreement is in fact signed and implemented, this might diminish the support for Taiwan coming from the White House. Of course, nothing is certain. The deal could also fail at any time due to the friction caused by the current health crisis increasing his support for Taiwan, and the trade agreement’s effect on U.S.-Taiwan relations remains uncertain in the first place. At this point, it is too early to tell. 

The Trump and Tsai presidencies have seen strong development of ties between Taiwan and the United States. But there are few reasons to believe that the relationship will not continue to grow and improve, regardless of who the next president of the United States might be. Taiwan has the favor of Congress and the unfavorable view that the majority of Americans have toward Chinese leadership on its side. Now, it’s up to the Tsai administration to take advantage of this and continue to make the relationship stronger.

A previous version stated the Taiwan Relations Act of 1973; the TRA was passed in 1979. 

(Cover photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0; Taiwan Presidential Office, CC BY 2.0)