What Is Tsai Ing-wen’s Legacy?

One word is often on the minds of presidents as they enter their second term: legacy. There is no more pressure to be reelected, so there is less expectation to respond to everyday changes in popular opinion, but rather to look at a longer horizon.

President Tsai Ing-wen is surely in that position. She is not only starting her second term today, but she comes into it with a huge popular mandate–18.5% more votes over the runner up, with more total number of votes gotten over any other president in Taiwan’s history.

There are many factors that went into this stunning electoral victory, but it’s safe to say: people liked what she did the past four years.

She could take this mandate and concentrate on building her legacy. But if people liked what she did, why mess with it? Her inauguration speech today can be thought of as Tsai Ing-wen version 1.1: just an update patch of what she brought during her first term.

Safe bet 

As I mentioned, Taiwan’s success is built on the “quiet confidence of the Taiwanese people in the results of their hard work.” Tsai’s governing style, as well as her own personality, reflects this ethos. Today’s speech continues this style.

Tsai began her speech by first thanking everyone in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, and how Taiwan’s success has brought the country together in solidarity and propelled Taiwan into the international spotlight. She then rightly recognizes this as an opportunity but also a challenge.

To tackle that challenge, she says, she will “proactively develop [Taiwan’s] industries, foster a safe society, ensure national security, and deepen our democracy. I am going to reinvent Taiwan and lead our country into the future.”

Compared to this lofty vision, the solutions she proposes are much more down to earth, building on existing policy directions from her first term. Upgrading existing industries, financial regulations reform, social safety net, are all talking points we’ve heard before. Same with her policies on defense, transitional justice, and a passing mention of constitutional reform.

In other words, stability and predictability, that quiet confidence we have come to expect from her. This is not to say those are bad things. Stability and predictability are rare qualities in major world leaders these days, to say the least. Tsai’s predictability is how her government earned the people’s trust in efforts against COVID-19. It stands in contrast to China’s growing aggressiveness, giving Taiwan the moral high ground–Taiwan is not seen as the “troublemaker” anymore. Taiwan is quietly but steadily winning respect internationally.

Boldness

But soon Taiwan may need a more bold approach to seize on openings afforded by the increasingly unpredictable world we live in.

There is a global pandemic going on right now, and it has killed more people, faster, and in more places, than most people alive today can remember. Against this backdrop, not only is China becoming more openly hostile and unhinged, the United States is led by the oftentimes juvenile and self-serving whims of President Donald Trump.

China silenced whistleblowers and tried to cover up a health crisis, and then immediately turned around to tell people China will save the world (from the problem it caused in the first place). The United States has so far been very inept at both preparing for and relieving a disaster of this scale. The postwar international system built by the United States, including the United Nation and the World Health Organization, could see the US playing a game of chicken with China, with China taking over the void left by the United States. Not to mention that the project of liberal globalization itself is at risk.

There may come a point in time when more of the same will not be enough. Surely there is more Taiwan can do with its newfound international goodwill, than knocking on the doors of the WHA of the UN like it has done year after year. There are bigger issues in Taiwan’s constitution that need to be fixed than lowering the voting age to 18, and Taiwan deserves leadership, not simply an open call for ideas. Taiwan needs to be prepared for when American support means very little, because the United States has lost too much legitimacy internationally.

Tsai now has a second term with a solid mandate to tackle some of these big issues, but judging from her inauguration speech, she chose the safe bet.

Legacy  

President Tsai Ing-wen’s legacy will surely be anchored by the global COVID-19 pandemic, specifically her administration’s handling of the crisis, which undoubtedly saved countless lives. She also dispelled any lingering notion that the DPP cannot govern, and took on a series of new initiatives, like the New Southbound Policy and same-sex marriage.

But her biggest legacy will be the start of a new chapter in Taiwan’s identity as a nation. In the face of mounting Chinese belligerence, she has become the caregiver to a nascent but growing Taiwanese assertiveness. To the rest of the world, she is now the face of a state with a quiet but credible voice in international affairs. She may not have pioneered those trends herself, yet she took them on confidently.

Tsai will not, however, be remembered as an innovative leader. Which is just as well for now. The next leader of Taiwan may not be so lucky; he or she may have to be much more proactive for Taiwan to come out ahead in the face of an ever more uncertain world.

(Feature photo from Presidential Office Flickr, CC BY 2.0)