I generally check in with a gangster before elections. Not so much for his political views, but to hear the odds being offered by underworld bookies. Of course, betting on election results is illegal in Taiwan, but it’s also as common as a Kaohsiung scooter rider making a left turn on a red light. I was a bit surprised in early May, however, to hear my “contact” tell me they weren’t offering bets on Han being recalled. “Don’t bother betting on it with anyone,” he told me, not that I was planning to. “It’s 50-50—too close to call.”
On June 6, Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu 韓國瑜 will face a recall effort which, if successful, would make him the first mayor and highest-ranking official ever voted out of office using Taiwan’s latest laws governing the recall of elected officials.
Polls have stopped due to a 10-day reporting embargo period set by Taiwanese law, but despite his unpopularity among the people of Kaohsiung, Han has a history of defying the odds. His 2018 victory in the city’s mayoral election, which ended decades of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) rule, went against nearly every pundit’s prophecy.
I’m not a political analyst. There are plenty of great writers, bloggers and journalists who have written extensively on how and why Han defied the odds and why the tables have turned. In February, Cat Thomas of Ketagalan Media interviewed Aaron Yin—one of the key figures in the civic effort to push the recall effort this far—and other Taiwan-based writers including Michael Turton, Brian Hioe and Courtney Donovan Smith have documented Han’s eventful mayoral tenure and failed presidential run for English-speaking audiences.
I’m simply ICRT’s lone Southern Taiwan correspondent. What I do is talk to people. As many as I can. I want soundbites, impressions and feelings… and I have a feeling Han just might survive this death sentence.
It started back in April. In February and March, people were adamant: Han had to go. His plans are nonsense, he is classless and tactless, he’s a showboat who prefers political stunts over action, he held back the city’s development with an ill-advised run for president, and on top of it all, he’s unapologetic!
Maybe COVID-19 had something to do with it, but I reckon it’s simpler: Taiwanese voters—being human—have short memories and short attention spans. Some research even indicates humans are predisposed toward forgiveness!
The process has dragged on since Han’s thrashing by President Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文 in January’s election. If the cliché is “a week is a long time in politics,” then what’s nearly six months?
After May 15, when Han finally broke his silence and asked his supporters not to vote via a Facebook post, I continued my chats with the militantly deep-Green dude at the bian dang shop, a light-Green Uni professor, a deep-Blue retired Air Force officer and a light-Blue school teacher acquaintance. I detected a softening in all of them. Sure, the deep-Green guy is still gonna vote “out” on 6/6, but he didn’t seem as angry as before. The light-Green friend started saying things like, “Well, Han has kind of been doing his job of late. Is it really worth the trouble and expense? We’ll dump him in 2022.” On the Blue side, both shades were indicating they planned to follow Han’s video call to simply not participate.
Speaking with random people, such as a vacationer at a Kenting beach or a taxi driver, similar notions were expressed. “Think of all the positions a new mayor will need to fill.” “The new mayor will only be in office for roughly two years before we’ll have to do it all over again.” “This is gonna cost hundreds of millions; Kaohsiung is already in debt.” “Han might be a bit dim, but his inner team seems reasonably solid.”
Will the effort to recall Han Kuo-yu make it past the finish line? (Credit: WeCare Kaohsiung)
There are also questions coming from academia. I recently interviewed Professor Liao Da-chi 廖達琪 of National Sun Yat-Sen University for ICRT. She has been teaching and studying politics and elections for over three decades. She posed legal issues, arguing that while many of the recall people cite Han’s running for president as their rationale for recalling him; no Republic of China (ROC) law prohibits a politician from being elected and then immediately running for higher office. Professor Liao agreed that Han came off a tad (I’d argue more than a tad) arrogant after winning an “unwinnable” victory—without much help from his Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), she added.
“Maybe some people don’t like how he talks, or the tree-climbing…but that’s his style!” she went on. “We hear them (the pro-recall camp) say ‘Guang-fu Kaohsiung, Guang-fu Kaohsiung;’ to my generation, that term refers to when the KMT took over Taiwan. Kaohsiung does not belong to anyone… so [when] you use that term… in my interpretation… you really have some sort of authoritarian thinking.”
I’m also hearing some of Professor Liao’s other objections echoed: “Is it fair to judge a mayor’s performance after just a year and a half in office?” “Is running for president a crime?” “What are we actually recalling him over?”
Han made a wise—or shrewd—move on May 15, 2020 when he apologized to Kaohsiung residents for his 2020 presidential run at a city council session. During the same city council session, he further humbled himself by admitting—finally—that Disneyland will not be coming to southern Taiwan any time soon.
The response to Han’s semi-mea culpa from Kaohsiung’s DPP city councilors was harsh; especially from city councilor Chen Chih-chung 陳致中, the son of former President Chen Shui-bian 陳水扁. Even some of those who will definitely vote “yes” on the recall said afterwards that the DPP attackers came out of that meeting looking cruel and overly vindictive.
It’s hard not to feel a twinge of sympathy for a guy who’s getting kicked while he’s down.
One might argue Han wisely tapped into the “Confucian forgiveness plan”: to get a second chance, keep your head down for a while, apologize and show a decent measure of humility. Han’s May 15 video asking his supporters not to vote and asking Han fans to stay away from Kaohsiung on the day of the vote (June 6) was—in my view—masterful. He wore the right outfit, a simple white shirt, used the right facial expressions—humble but not weak—and looked genuine and sincere. If you were a Kaohsiung voter sitting on the fence, his apology at the city council and his video could be all the reason you need to keep your butt at home that Saturday.
And in the end, it’ll really come down to the fence sitters. For the recall effort to be successful, at least 575,091 voters, or 25% of the electorate, must vote “yes” while outnumbering “no” votes. The revised recall law, championed by the New Power Party, lowered that threshold for success to 25%. However, as ICRT Taichung host (and Ketagalan Media contributor) Courtney Donovan Smith pointed out in a Facebook post, if Han is to be deposed, a fair number of the “might vote” and “no answer” people are going to have to come out and vote.
On a darker note, while there is no direct evidence, rumors are swirling that certain underworld elements will seek to influence the election on June 6.
Last week, prosecutors said they were investigating Kaohsiung Civil Affairs Bureau director-general Tsao Huan-jung 曹桓榮 for allegedly telling Han’s supporters to interfere with the vote. Previous reports alleged that members of Han’s camp were seen attending a banquet with members of the Bamboo Union crime syndicate. In attendance was Chang An-le 張安樂, a former consigliere of the gang popularly known as “White Wolf” and the current chairman of the China Unification Promotion Party.
Kaohsiung’s police chief indicated this week that he’s aware of the rumors and told the press that his department stands ready to deal with any intimidation, violence, or threats, but even the idea that you might get “paid a visit” sometime in the future is spooky and could lead some to skip the vote.
As it stands, Han has already walked up the steps of the scaffold, placed his head on the block and appears ready to become the first person to lose the head of both the presidency and a city. But last-minute reprieves do happen. Lest we forget, Han was the target of a recall effort in 1994 over his support of the opening of a nuclear power plant as a Taipei County legislator.
Han Kuo-yu has, so far, been hard to recall. He pulled off an upset in the 2018 mayoral race… and while I don’t recommend betting on it, he just might do it again.
(Cover photo via Han Kuo-yu / Facebook)
