Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific at the G7 and Global Britain

This is a translation from the original G7聲明確認台海議題多邊化以及英國的印太角色 by Lai I-chung (賴怡忠), who heads international affairs and cross straits affairs at Taiwan Thinktank. Originally published by Voicettank. Translation by Lingsan Sher.

In a meeting on May 5, 2021 held in London, Foreign and Development Ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) issued a statement that showed support of Taiwan for the very first time. In addition to openly supporting Taiwan’s meaningful participation in both World Health Organization (WHO) forums and World Health Assembly (WHA), G7 foreign ministers also underscored the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, and called for the peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues.

Although this is just a foreign ministers’ statement and it’s not certain if it will be included in the G7 leaders’ summit in June, the support of Taiwan’s meaningful participation in the WHO and WHA, the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, and a peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues has become a consensus among the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the European Union foreign ministers. This showed that the Taiwan Strait issue has become more important internationally.

Moreover, the UK’s “Global Britain” agenda could be found beneath the surface of this G7 meeting, especially when American F-35 fighter jets joined HMS Queen Elizabeth’s Indo-Pacific visit on the first day of the G7 meeting. The UK’s political intention is clear.

Taiwan as a multilateral issue at the G7 

This G7 ministers’ meeting was meaningful for Taiwan, since this was the very first time that the G7 explicitly showed support for Taiwan’s WHA participation and peace in the Taiwan Strait. Although G7 member states (other than Italy) have individually expressed support for Taiwan in the past, it is still meaningful for Taiwan to be included in an official G7 statement.

Including Taiwan, especially the peaceful resolution of the Taiwan-China conflict, in the official statement not only signals that it is now an issue of concern for the G7, it also means that the US is no longer shouldering all the responsibility for security in the Taiwan Strait, but rather the other states (including the EU) are now all stakeholders. The Taiwan Strait question has gone from a triangular US-Taiwan-China issue to a global, multilateral issue.

It is noteworthy that the wording regarding the Taiwan-Strait issues were lifted straight from the US-Japan Joint Statement of April 16, 2021. Does this mean that the Taiwan-Strait issues will appear in other multilateral meetings going forward, like US-Australia summit or even a NATO Summit? If so, this shows that the US is indeed moving to make Taiwan a multilateral issue, but also signals to China that it needs to de-escalate its aggression towards Taiwan, because it is no longer simply a US-China point of friction but China against the world’s major democracies.

The US Secretary of State urges Taiwan’s invitation to the WHA

Two days after the G7 statement, the United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for the WHO to re-invite Taiwan as an observer to the WHA, as Taiwan had been from 2009 to 2016. Blinken suggested that the WHO Director-General should “rectify” this problem. Moreover, a statement titled “Restoring Taiwan’s Appropriate Place at the World Health Assembly” was issued on the official website of the US State Department. The statement calls upon the WHO Director-General to invite Taiwan to participate as an observer at the WHA – as it has in previous years, prior to objections registered by the government of the People’s Republic of China. As of this press time, the WHO Director-General had not responded.

On calling for Taiwan’s inclusion as an observer at the WHA, Blinken continued his predecessor Mike Pompeo’s stance. Last year, the WHO legal offices said that Taiwan’s attendance has to be decided by the WHO’s 194 member states, but Pompeo refuted that claim and said the Director-General is allowed to invite anyone as an observer without the member states. This year, Blinken directly called on the Director-General right on the heels of the G7 statement, giving this demand even more weight than before.

What would happen if WHO kept rejecting Taiwan’s participation in WHA? The G7 could even invite Taiwan on its own, since the G7 Health Ministers meeting happens before the G7 leaders’ summit in June.

UK presides over this year’s G7 meeting 

Looking at this G7 meeting, the UK has been preparing this event as an opening salvo of post-Brexit “Global Britain”. In addition to Australia, India, and South Korea, the UK invited South Africa and Brunei, which holds the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), signaling the UK’s intention of connecting with QUAD and enhanced relations with ASEAN.

China was at the top of the agenda, as the participants allotted China and Russia 90 minutes of discussion apiece, whereas other discussions were at most 30 minutes. This showed not only how much China weighed on the participants’ minds, but also the UK’s increasing role in the Indo-Pacific.

France tried something similar in the 2019 G7 meeting to promote its own priorities, such as its Indo-Pacific strategy (the reason for inviting India and Australia, two key partners), multilateral relationships with the southern Mediterranean region and Africa (the reason for inviting the United Nations, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the like). Likewise, the UK presided over this year’s G7 meeting as a platform for its “Integrated Review” and the goal of “Global Britain”.

This showed UK’s ambition of playing a role in the Indo-Pacific after Brexit, including expressing interest in joining the CPTPP multilateral trade agreement, and becoming a dialogue partner of ASEAN. Even though the UK’s bid is still being considered, the UK would be an attractive member as one of the seven largest economies in the world. As for ASEAN, the UK is apparently focusing on the UK-ASEAN free trade agreement. Inviting Brunei, the chair of ASEAN, to the G7 looks to be part of this campaign.

Furthermore, inviting South Korea to G7 is not just a move to build relations with Asia, but a part of Britain’s plans to build a group of democracies called the D10. This could be done by adding Australia, South Korea, and India to the G7.

For post-Brexit Britain to expand its global influence, the quickest way is to reattach itself to a few existing multilateral groups, so they can amplify the UK’s diplomatic efforts. “Global Britain” could very well be based on cooperation with QUAD, strengthening its role in the G7, and creating the D10 that centers around the UK.

HMS Queen Elizabeth (from HMS Queen Elizabeth on Twitter)

HMS Queen Elizabeth’s visit to Indo-Pacific

The landing of F-35 fighter jets on the aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth on the first day of G7 was certainly not a coincidence. The fact that the first deployment of HMS Queen Elizabeth since the decommission of HMS Illustrious in 2014 was a tour of the Indo-Pacific region speaks volumes.

If China believes its Liaoning aircraft carrier group is a show of its capability for military power, Beijing might be jaw-dropped by the aircraft carrier group of HMS Queen Elizabeth.

Even if the Liaoning were fully loaded, its displacement still could not compare to the Queen Elizabeth. With the capability of carrying 40 carrier-based aircrafts, HMS Queen Elizabeth is three times the size of British carriers of the past. On her maiden voyage, the Queen Elizabeth will be escorted by two guided-missile destroyers, two frigates，two supply ships, and one American Aegis destroyer and a Dutch frigate. Ten American Marine F-35Bs will also travel with this group, and a company of Royal Marines. A submarine is also commonly part of an air carrier strike group. We will be seeing this fleet of British, American and Dutch ships ply the Indian and Pacific Oceans, interacting and conducting exercises with countries along the way.

Even though this carrier group won’t come to the Taiwan Strait or be stationed in Asia, it is still a tour of the British Royal Navy, and as the maiden voyage of Britain’s newest aircraft carrier, the signal it sends is clear.

Taiwan-Strait in the EU, D10, and Democracy Summit?

UK’s diplomatic strategy at the G7 after Brexit had brought more diplomatic space for Taiwan. With explicit support from the US, Taiwan now has more leverage with Europe as well.

After this year’s G7 foreign ministers’ meeting, the Taiwan Strait issue might reappear in future meetings as well. Taiwan should be ready to build on these successes, especially if Taiwan continues to be talked about at the EU, D10, and the US-led Summit of Democracies.

Recently at the National Assembly of France, a resolution in support of Taiwan was passed with a vote of 304:0. This kind of result may also be expected in other European countries in the future.

The implementation of the resolution still remains uncertain. However, the vote of 304:0 reminds me of the resolutions made by the US Congress regarding former president Lee Teng-hui’s visit to Cornell University in 1995, which was 105:1 in the Senate and 424:0 in the House. Although the result of this resolution could not be enforced, it created immense political pressure on the Clinton Administration. Three month later, President Lee Teng-hui visited Cornell University as wished.

I witnessed first-hand how to make the impossible into possible, and how the US Congress played a significant role in the US-Taiwan relationship. Before, the concern was mainly about issues regarding human rights in Taiwan. However, after the Cornell resolution of 1995, pressuring the Executive Branch to support Taiwan became a bipartisan issue for Congress. Would this change happen again in Europe? I am just speculating here, but without a doubt, the message that this G7 communique sent is significant. How to seize the moment is now Taiwan’s biggest challenge.

(Feature photo by Number 10, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)