Taiwan’s COVID-19 Outbreak Is a Test For War Readiness 

This is a translation from the original 台灣的疫情危機正是檢驗全民防衛動員的好機會 by Wang Chen-ming (王臻明), a columnist on military issues. Originally published by Voice Tank. Translation by Jessica Wu.

The recent COVID-19 infections of China Airlines’ employees at the Novotel Hotel has led to a rapid increase in the virus’ outbreak in Taiwan, propelling the country to enter Level 3 restrictions, the brink of a total lockdown. 

As a consequence, the stock market fluctuated dramatically, leading to panic. Fear that the epidemic will get further out of control drove people to hoard daily necessities and essential goods. At the same time, some counties and cities have been taken over by a drought. While the water supply was being rationed, two unexpected, large-scale power shortages have occurred, due to power plant and grid failures. 

This is the first time in a long while that the Taiwanese people simultaneously experienced water shortages, power outages, economic turmoil, fear of going outside, and a shortage of daily necessities and essential goods. With rumors flying everywhere, we basically went through a small-scale war drill. 

We are not ready yet

Although Taiwan has claimed to be preparing for war for sixty some years, our stable and affluent society has not thought about war for a long time. Not only is our mobilization system for reservists flawed, every year the Wan’an air raid drills have been carried out in short shifts, so as to not disturb the residents. Traffic of pedestrians and vehicles are kept under control, but only for twenty to thirty minutes. The disaster rescue drills are also conducted in designated areas that require the least amount of mobilization. Most people do not know where the nearest air raid shelters are. It is hard to imagine, in a real war, how people would respond. Taiwan’s disaster response mobilization system has not yet to be truly tested. 

In the current COVID-19 outbreak, Taipei and New Taipei, which have the most medical resources in the nation, are already under strain after confirmed cases exceeded a thousand. Taipei has even announced recruiting retired or former medical staff to make up for the manpower shortage. But if war actually breaks out, Taipei and New Taipei, as political and economic hubs, will be subjected to the fiercest enemy air attacks. Casualties will be ten or a hundred times the current situation, which is obviously beyond the capacity of the existing medical system. 

In addition, there will be no way to repair the massive water shortages and power outages due to a war in Taiwan within a few hours, and the telecommunication system will unlikely be able to operate normally as long as hostilities are ongoing.

By then the stock market will not only collapse, but will also be unable to continue trading. Most of the transportation and production lines will come to a halt, and the young and strong will need to change into military uniforms and be organized into reserve units to be sent into combat. Daily necessities will be in short supply. The supermarkets will not be able to restock. 

Worse, in the chaos amid water and electricity shortages, the government’s usual channels of communication, such as via television, radio, and the internet, will all suffer disruptions. Rumors and disinformation will be rampant, and criminals who take advantage of the situation will create an ever-more deteriorating society. If the war drags on or heads south, social order may collapse, cities and towns face devastation, and people have to struggle for survival in the shambles. 

We can tell from Taiwan’s past experiences that our current war readiness is completely inadequate. The epidemic, water restrictions, power outages, and other small-scale disasters are insignificant compared to a real-time war. In the face of the rapidly changing international order, the United States and China are on increasingly bad terms. The People’s Liberation Army has been raising the level of military provocations, which has raised tensions in the Taiwan Strait. 

The Taiwanese national military has started to reform its reserve mobilization system to address the shortcomings of the past. The Legislative Yuan passed legislation on June 9 of this year to establish the National Defense Mobilization Agency to integrate all reserve mobilization efforts and prepare for possible crises. The epidemic has made it clear that national defense is not as simple as recruiting people and handing them guns. 

The Pandemic is just a preview

How to rapidly expand medical capabilities in the time of war, along with continuing care of the general population will be one of the most important factors to stabilize public confidence. The current peacetime fire, emergency and medical institutions are unlikely to cope with the large number of deaths and injuries that may occur during wartime. Military field hospitals at all levels must deal with soldiers wounded in combat before the general population. Does the government have a plan to mobilize medical manpower and stockpile sufficient medical supplies to respond in the case of war? 

During a war, how do we maintain a minimum standard of living when water and electricity are cut off for long periods of time? How do we transport clean drinking water to the people? How do we establish the most basic communication channels so that the government’s orders can be communicated to civil servants and the general public to reduce panic? How do we minimize disruptions to financial services? What about the production and distribution of essential goods? These issues, which do not seem to be problems in times when water and electricity are available, are a matter of life and death for the people and the overall morale in a time of war. 

Not to mention the most important issue of food and fuel. How do we distribute them to twenty-three million people in a timely manner while the transportation system is severely damaged? That is a huge project that cannot be handled by the current public sector nor by civilian supermarket logistics. In the worst case, how do we ensure the safety of food delivery and maintain the most basic social order, something our peacetime police departments probably are not equipped to handle? Besides common criminals causing trouble, there is the possibility of enemy infiltrators seeking to incite the public with rumors to undermine and weaken the will of the Taiwanese society. 

The challenge that Taiwan will face during a war will be a rigorous test in which all of Taiwan will be attacked and crises will all arise all at once. This is why the name of the reserve mobilization unit is now called the “National Defense Mobilization Agency,” with a special emphasis on ensuring the whole of society is ready for war. The government must understand how difficult war will be, and must make the most comprehensive preparations. 

After the National Defense Mobilization Agency is established, it must not just passively gather past reserve mobilization work, but must actively plan in the direction of national defense and overall mobilization.

War requires every ounce of available strength 

During the deliberation of the National Defense Mobilization Agency Act, a legislator questioned the national defense minister whether he had considered mobilizing the people in general, including local temple organizations and charitable organizations that have played a significant role in past major disasters. In a narrow sense of the mobilization effort, these organizations are, of course, not a part of the national defense force, but in a broader sense, any assistance that can help stabilize the people should be an active part of relief at home. The National Defense Mobilization Agency must plan to include these institutions in the mobilization efforts. 

Of course, these preparations involve various government departments, from medical and health, police and fire, to economic production, food and supplies and others. A Ministry of National Defense bureau alone cannot manage everything; the various ministries must work together. However, the National Defense Mobilization Agency has the obligation to push for these preparations and provide advice to all relevant parts of the government—especially when the rest of the government are preoccupied with their existing peacetime obligations. Preparing for war and raising everyone’s awareness will be an important and undeniable responsibility of the National Defense Mobilization Agency. 

(Feature photo by Taiwan Presidential Office, CC BY 2.0)