Taiwan’s Diplomacy Is About Collective Deterrence, Not Heading For War

Last month, former Taiwan Vice President Chen Chien-jen attended a summit forum on COVID-19 in the US. At the forum, Chen promised Taiwan is committed to helping our friends around the world in this difficult time: Taiwan will continue to donate medical supplies to fight COVID-19 and will donate to the American-led global healthcare fund.

This kind of display of soft power, based on mutual benefit and quiet confidence, is the exact opposite of the People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s so-called “wolf warrior” tantrum diplomacy.

Taiwan’s diplomacy should be focused on cooperating with existing and potential partners and gradually upgrading the relationship towards security cooperation. Recently, a few Taiwanese diplomats and politicians have overly emphasized the possibility of war and conflict. I do not believe that is the best strategy.

Our diplomacy needs to be about cooperating on deterring conflict, not to emphasize preparing for war. Taiwan does not have formal mutual defense treaties with major partners, and even if we did, in international relations theory there is still the possibility of abandonment if allies fear entrapment in a security dilemma. States are worried about being dragged into conflict by their allies, but are also worried about their allies reneging on their mutual defense promises. Therefore, for two states to consolidate their mutual security promises, their national interests have to be as closely aligned as possible, and there has to be an abundance of mutual trust.

Taiwan should not invoke negative emotions towards China to deepen its security cooperation with existing and potential allies. Rather, Taiwan should emphasize its importance in maintaining regional peace. Overly focusing on the bad behaviors of China as the reason for supporting Taiwan will backfire if China changes course and put on a smile for the world. But even in that case, China will insist on sovereignty over Taiwan. How would we respond then?

The Chinese Communist Party has certainly shown the world its vileness through threats towards neighboring countries, its persecution of Uyghurs and Tibetans, and its blatant violation of human rights in Hong Kong. As a result, China’s threat towards Taiwan is now more visible to the world, but this is just one element in Taiwan’s overall diplomatic strategy.

Taiwan must not base its diplomacy solely around the China issue, but rather show Taiwan’s value to the world on trade, energy, public health, information security, and universal values, to steadily upgrade cooperation and align our interests with our partners. We need to accumulate our leverage and be a driving force behind regional integration, which will then incentivize our partners to have more interest in Taiwan affairs.

Until then, overly alarmist or warmongering language will not help regional cooperation too much. Screaming back at Chinese trolls may feel good for those of us already facing the PRC’s threat, but it will become a burden for convincing democratic allies (especially their skeptics) to support Taiwan.

Deterrence is only the tool to achieve our goal, which is regional peace. Deterrence will only work if states with compatible values work together, and show resolve in a way different from the PRC’s “wolf warrior” tantrum diplomacy. Taiwan must pursue a diplomacy based on dependability and self-confidence towards our allies, in order to make escalating tensions unilaterally a diplomatic disaster for the PRC.

(Feature Image from Taiwan Presidential Office Flickr)