Political Stars Backslide in Latest Survey on Mayor Approval Rating

The COVID-19 pandemic took our nation by storm this year. Were our local elected officials up to the challenge? To find out, CommonWealth Magazine has conducted its annual “Local Leaders Approval Ratings Survey” and “Happy City Survey”. As many as 14,844 Taiwanese citizens and nearly 600 political experts were polled to deliver a “performance review” of Taiwan’s 22 mayors and magistrates.

This year, the elephant in the room is of course COVID-19. Professor Chen Hsiu-hsi (陳秀熙) of National Taiwan University’s College of Public Health notes that the central government has allowed local authorities to hold daily press briefings to update the public on the pandemic. He sees this as a sign that the central government has delegated some responsibilities to the local level.

Our survey found that Taiwanese citizens cared the most about their cities’ economic growth; it is a key indicator in many of the results. The better the economy is doing, the higher the approval rating.

“The economy is a deciding factor, but whether a local leader has been able to mount an effective defense against the virus will give or take away points,” says Professor Hsien-ming Lien (連賢明) of the Department of Public Finance at National Chengchi University. The pandemic can be seen as the “black swan event” that has shaped public opinion this year—whether local leaders were able to protect their constituents has a profound effect on their image.

The latest survey shows a sea change in public perception. The mayors affiliated with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in three major cities—Taoyuan, Tainan, and Kaohsiung—saw their approval ratings go into freefall. On the other side of the aisle, eight of the fourteen Kuomintang (KMT) mayors and magistrates saw their rankings climb; as it happens, all eight of them will soon be up for reelection. It remains to be seen if this will be a harbinger of what’s to come at the polls next year.

Here are five major takeaways to keep an eye on:

Takeaway No. 1: Popular mayors lose their luster
Hou is seen as overreaching; Cheng is strangely voiceless

The first takeaway from the survey is the undeniable aftershock of the pandemic. New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih slipped down to fifth place from second last year. Taoyuan Mayor Cheng Wen-tsan, who had seemed to be well on his way to becoming the DPP’s candidate for Premier, suffered a precipitous fall from third to tenth place.

Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je, who was a doctor before he entered politics, and who has been very vocal in his criticism of the central government’s response to COVID-19, was ultimately unable to shift public opinion in his favor; he still came in dead last at number 22.

The fact of the matter is, the six special municipalities (Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Taichung, Kaohsiung, and Tainan) have larger populations that move about more frequently, making these cities more vulnerable to outbreaks. The country bore witness to this in Taipei, New Taipei, and Taoyuan earlier this year.

New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih, who has promoted a public image of being tough on the virus, both gained and lost favor due to the pandemic.

(Source: Chien-Tong Wang)

“Good PR is important during a bad crisis; you need to engage in risk communication and let your constituents know what the next step is,” says Shi-yuan Ma (馬士元), Associate Professor at the Department of Urban Planning and Disaster Management at Ming Chuan University. Hou’s approach has been to dial things up to eleven; it was his way to combat the virus. However, this has created the perception that he is nosy and overreaching.

New Taipei’s performance in this year’s “Happy City Survey” is also worth a mention. While the city’s economic growth has been second only to Taoyuan, both New Taipei’s “governance” and “social welfare” indicators went down, and its “culture and education” fared even worse. That is Hou’s Achilles’ heel.

And while Taoyuan’s economic development is unrivalled, its mayor’s approval rating fell to tenth place. In the past couple of years, Taoyuan’s economy has grown faster than any of the five other special municipalities, especially Taipei and New Taipei. However, its performance in “culture and education”, “environmental sustainability” and “governance” has flagged.

The fact of the matter is, different people have utterly different opinions of Cheng Wen-tsan.

First of all, Taoyuan was the first breach in the defense against the pandemic. Both the International Airport and the Novotel airport hotel, where the virus found a chink in the armor, are in Taoyuan. The authorities came under intense fire for failing to adhere to preventative measures. “All the blame falls squarely on Cheng’s shoulders,” says Lu-huei Chen (陳陸輝), Research Fellow at the Election Study Center at National Chengchi University.

The second reason is because Cheng is from the ruling DPP party. While the leaders of Taipei and New Taipei have been very vocal in their criticism of the central government’s performance, Cheng stood out as being strangely voiceless.

More importantly, since Cheng is a rapidly rising star within the DPP, his image has shifted from “the people’s mayor” to “the DPP’s mayor”. As with all ambitious politicians, sooner or later, they must pick a side.

Ko’s bid for prominence hits the brick wall of economic regression

It may be common knowledge that residents of the capital city are not shy to voice their criticism, so the mayor of Taipei is bound to get a great deal of flak. But the fact of the matter is, Ko Wen-je has never done well in CommonWealth’s local leaders opinion poll; the best he’s ever done was ninth place. In 2016, he dropped down to number 21; two years later, he enjoyed a brief resurgence and was ranked twelfth. However, ever since winning his bid for reelection, Ko’s place in the opinion poll has been stuck in the bottom three.

Like Taoyuan’s Cheng, Ko is nearing the end of his second term. Experts point out that there are multiple factors at work against him. For one, political leaders usually lose their luster at the end of a term. For another, most politicians spend their first term shoring up support, leaving true reform for the second term—which is when their popularity drops. It is the albatross around the necks of all two-term politicians.

(Source: Chien-Tong Wang)

What makes it worse for Ko is that, while Taipei used to lead the pack in all five of the indicators used in the survey, its lead has narrowed in recent years. In 2021, Taipei’s “governance” indicator ranked third among the six special municipalities, while “economy” fell to number five—Ko’s worst showing since he entered office.

In essence, Ko has depleted his constituents’ store of good will. “It’s clear as day that Ko wants to run for president. Establishing his own party, constantly being at loggerheads with the central government—these are dead giveaways,” says Chih-Cheng Meng (蒙志成), Associate Professor at the Department of Political Science at National Cheng Kung University. He notes that this level of realpolitik may come as a disappointment for the voters who swept Ko into office.

It has also hampered Ko’s effort at mounting an effective defense against the pandemic. Whether it’s responding to the crisis, allocating medical resources, deploying vaccines, or rolling out financial assistance, Ko’s performance has been rated as either the worst or the second worst in this year’s opinion poll.

Takeaway No. 2: Turning crisis into opportunity
Quick control of the virus gave Pan his third consecutive win

Even as popular mayors up north were being hamstrung by the pandemic, other local leaders were able to turn the crisis into an opportunity.

(Source: Ming-Tang Huang)

Although Pingtung only ranked eighth among the sixteen counties in the “Happy City Survey”, its “economy” indicator surged back to sixth place—the best in Magistrate Pan Men-an’s tenure. His constituents gave him high marks for his performance in terms of “economy”, “culture and education”, and “social welfare”. In just about every way, Pan is Pingtung’s favorite son.

Pan got bonus points for his performance during the pandemic. A grandmother and grandson returning from Peru brought the Delta variant to Pingtung. “When Delta surfaced in Pingtung, there was no place in the world that got it under control as quickly. Even transmissions during the incubation period were stamped out. This helped Pingtung stem the second wave of infections,” explains Chen Hsiu-hsi.

The secret to Pan’s success is a quick response to the crisis, an immediate move into the command center to render assistance, and exemplary public health and social measures that included testing and quarantine. All this has a lot to do with the magistrate’s powers of leadership, governance, and communication.

Takeaway No. 3: KMT’s triumphant ‘army of moms’

This year’s survey demonstrated an irreversible trend that may decide next year’s election: Local leaders who advanced in the rankings were all mayors or magistrates seeking reelection. Eight of them are affiliated with the KMT, and seven of them are women. The most brilliant example is Wang Huei-mei, Magistrate of Changhua County, who has surged to seventh place. The only politician affiliated with the DPP to advance in the polls was Weng Chang-liang, Magistrate of Chiayi County, who finished third.

According to Chen Hsiu-hsi, Changhua performed best in its response to the pandemic among all the counties. By his observation, Changhua outperformed the central government in its analysis and dissection of how the virus is transmitted, and it took appropriate actions. This level of competency bolstered public faith in the county government’s preventative measures.

(Source: Chiayi city government)

As for the agricultural county of Chiayi, where over 20% of the population are senior citizens, although these natural limitations landed it at number twelve in the “Happy City Survey”, Magistrate Weng’s leadership has yielded positive results in terms of both “economy” and “social welfare”.

A comparison between the KMT and DPP leaders reveals that, out of the eleven KMT mayors and magistrates chasing reelection, many of them leapt forward in their rankings. “Yilan’s Lin Zi-miao, Chiayi City’s Huang Min-hui, Taichung’s Lu Shiow-yen, and Wang Huei-mei all present a warm and motherly public image. Their opponents are having a hard time gaining an upper hand over this ‘army of moms’,” says a staff member of the DPP who asked not to be named.

“If their current showings are anything to go by, none of them will have much trouble getting reelected,” says a political analyst who wished to remain anonymous. On the flip side, a number of mayors and magistrates in the DPP camp are nearing the end of their tenures, but without potential successors who could pick up the torch. “Especially in Taoyuan, the pressure is enormous: Mayor Cheng Wen-tsan must prove he has what it takes to produce a worthy political heir.”

Takeaway No. 4: The “rags to riches” dream cannot die
Chen Chi-mai, whose success against the virus did him no favors, is on thin ice

There’s more bad news in store for the DPP. Chen Chi-mai, mayor of Kaohsiung, came in at number nineteen.

While Chen performed admirably in his fight against COVID-19, it was not enough to give him any extra points.

Like Taipei’s Ko, Chen has a background in public health. His constituents gave him a stellar score of 7.38 in regard to his overall response to the pandemic. This is higher than the five other special municipalities. As many as 84.88% of those polled in Kaohsiung commended his performance in terms of crisis response. As for the executive efficiency he displayed in providing financial aid for those hit hardest by the pandemic, Chen also scored higher than his counterparts in the other special municipalities.

And yet, despite all of this, Chen has not been able to revitalize the “old and broke” city of Kaohsiung.

Among the six special municipalities, Kaohsiung has come in last in the “Happy City Survey” for four consecutive years since 2018. The biggest pain point is the economy.

(Source: CommonWealth Magazine)

There are deeper political implications. “The KMT camp is still furious that the mayor they elected, Han Kuo-yu, was recalled. On top of this, Chen has only been in office for a year, which is not enough time for his policies to show results. The fact that he is already facing reelection next year should give the DPP many sleepless nights,” says Professor Tzu Chiao Su (蘇子喬) at the Department of Public Administration and Management at the Chinese Culture University.

Takeaway No. 5: Housing costs a common thorn in the nation’s side

In the six special municipalities, insurmountable home costs and congested traffic have become the root of all evil. In the survey, we asked the question: “What is the one thing in your city or county that the government must try to improve immediately?” In Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, and Tainan, the answer was high housing prices and congested traffic. In Taichung and Kaohsiung, high housing prices was the second most common response after air pollution.

If we take a step back and look at the whole picture, citizens in 18 of Taiwan’s 22 counties and cities have listed high housing prices among their top three concerns. It is a common thorn in the nation’s side.

Raising property taxes runs the risk of alienating voters

Hsin-Ta Huang (黃信達), Associate Professor at the Department of Political Science at Tunghai University, says that in addition to allocations from the central government, property taxes are the main source of income for local governments. However, urban planning and property rezoning have driven housing costs even higher.

If mayors or magistrates tried to raise property taxes in an attempt to drive down housing costs—“It would be like shooting themselves in the foot,” says Hsien-ming Lien. Taiwan’s home-ownership rate is around 80%. Trying to lower property prices would lead to financial loss for anyone who owns a home. To raise property taxes would be to antagonize voters. That is why local governments have settled on social housing as the solution.

The year 2022 will be the year when mayors and magistrates are voted into or out of office. High housing costs, bad traffic, air pollution, and cityscape improvements—these are the issues nearest and dearest to the citizens of the six special municipalities.

As for the 16 counties, in Yilan, Miaoli, Nantou, Changhua, Yunlin, Chiayi City, Chiayi County, and Pingtung, the lack of job opportunities is the greatest concern. On the eastern seaboard and the offshore islands (besides Hualien), access to medical care is the biggest issue.

The people have spoken. Whoever can come up with concrete and actionable plans; whoever can take the opportunity to forge ahead with the correct policies—these are the ones who may win the people’s support.