Taiwan Comparisons Resonate Among Ukrainian Residents

In the build-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, parallels with Taiwan’s situation were frequently mentioned in international media. Following British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s comments at the Munich Security Conference on February 19 that the echo of an unchallenged invasion “will be heard in Taiwan,” Taipei was quick to point out the differences between the two situations.

At a February 23 meeting of the Ukraine task force set up under the National Security Council (NSC), Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen noted that there were fundamental geopolitical differences between Taiwan and Ukraine.

For once, Beijing sang a similar tune. “Taiwan is not Ukraine,” said Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying on the same day as the NSC meeting. Predictably, though, the lyrics were very different. “Taiwan has always been an inalienable part of China. This is an indisputable legal and historical fact,” Hua added.

Following the invasion, Taiwan’s government reiterated its view that comparisons between Ukraine and Taiwan were off the mark. “In all areas, the two cannot be compared,” said Cabinet spokesperson Lo Ping-cheng in a statement issued on February 28.

Different, but maybe not so different

Yet, many Ukrainian residents of Taiwan see similarities. At protests outside the building that houses the Russian representative office in Taipei last week, several spoke of perceived similarities in the predicaments of the two nations.

“I think more Taiwanese are actually trying to be engaged with the issue of Ukraine because it’s a similar situation for them with China,” says Alina Paniuta. “China was one of the only countries that didn’t criticize Putin, so maybe Xi is planning to do the same thing to Taiwan – who knows?”

Her compatriot

Tanya Polyak and other protesters (photo by James Baron)

agrees. “Even our news in Ukraine shows that if this happens to Ukraine, maybe China is going to attack Taiwan,” she says. “My mom sent me a message [with news] about Chinese planes flying on Taiwan’s southern border.”

Although her family lives in the western city of Lviv, close to Poland – a relatively safe haven at the time of press – Polyak says bombing can be heard from the outskirts. Despite the imminent danger – or perhaps because of it – her family is concerned about her safety in Taiwan. “They’re so scared,” says Polyak. “They say, ‘Go to the US or somewhere safe.’”

For some, there are limits to the analogies that can be drawn. “Ukraine and Taiwan are very different countries,” says Yana Bass who hails from the city of Kryvyi Rih in Central Ukraine and has lived in Taiwan for four years. “So, of course the situation between Russia and Ukraine is not the same as between Taiwan and China.”

However, like many Ukrainians, Bass identifies with the feeling of living in the shadow of a larger aggressive power.

“One thing that is common for both of us is that we have a neighbor who wants to have rights for territory that does not belong to them,” says Bass, a dance teacher who is married to a Taiwanese national with whom she has two young children. “I just hope that Taiwan is safe and nothing is going to happen here. But I’m afraid of that, and it’s in my mind every day.”

Citizens of former Soviet Bloc nations who attended the Taipei demonstrations also identify with the threat to Taiwan. “Our history is a bit similar to Taiwan,” says Aušra Andriuškaitė, chair of the Lithuanian Community in Taiwan. “We know what it means to be under threat. You have to learn how to live with this Big Brother – whether to say something or just remain quiet. Now, we are speaking up.”

Miglė Matekūnaitė, another Lithuanian resident of Taiwan, has vivid memories of “Bloody Sunday,” the 1991 Soviet crackdown on Lithuanian independence that culminated in the death of 14 civilians guarding the Vilnius TV Tower and other key sites in the capital. The events in Ukraine have stoked these memories as well as concern for Taiwan’s situation.

“I was young, but I remember I saw from my window the Soviet tanks coming to take the TV tower,” Matekūnaitė says. “We know China is threatening Taiwan, and I hope that this scenario will never happen because Taiwan is its own country and has never been a part of China.”

Even Russian citizens attending the demonstrations acknowledged the parallels. “Before I came to Taiwan, I lived in the Czech Republic,” says Alex, who like many Russian protestors preferred to use only his given name. “In many ways, I found it like Taiwan because of the big totalitarian power that is trying to exert its influence over it.”

Elsewhere, there are concerns that, by placing undue emphasis on Taiwan’s situation, international media has essentially engaged in scaremongering. Shortly after the invasion, Russian-language reports surfaced claiming that Taiwan had also been attacked. With indications that Moscow is deliberately stoking the fires, at least one Ukrainian resident of Taiwan has spoken of fears of a fake news campaign to this end.

Despite the uncertainty, others believe there are broader lessons to learn. “I was a bit hesitant to draw any parallels, because I know it is a very sensitive topic here, and one has to tread carefully to avoid potential panic and unhelpful conclusions,” says Yulia Maksymova, a teacher who has lived in Taiwan for seven years. “Having said that, I cannot help but think about the day our Crimean Peninsula was annexed. I believe that if Putin had been stopped then and there, we might have avoided the devastating war that is raging in Ukraine now.”

Describing the invasion as “more than just a regional conflict,” Maksymova believes the 2014 annexation was “a red flag that the world missed.” The crackdown against dissent in Hong Kong is another litmus test, she says. “Such events are closely monitored by other dictators around the world,” says Maksymova. “This war is creating a blueprint of how an independent country could be invaded and draws a clear line between what could be tolerated in the international arena and what will not.”

In safe hands

Regardless of the perceived threat, some are confident that Taiwan and its residents are in safe hands.

“Before the war started, I was reading some prognosis about what would happen if Putin invaded – this kind of analytics,” says Yulia Koroleva, whose husband works for a multinational in Taipei. “Whoever talked about Ukraine, mentioned Taiwan and China. Since I don’t speak Chinese, and I’ve lived here only two years, I can’t compare [local media],” she says.

“But what I’m witness to is that the Taiwanese government is very strong,” says Koroleva, highlighting the administration’s success in dealing with Covid. “I’ve lived in five countries and Taiwan has the most effective government. Affordable services, properly organized; transport and healthcare is cheap and good quality; it’s safe, democratic – honestly, it’s a paradise,” she adds.

These factors, says Koroleva, give people a reason to have faith in the country’s leadership.

“Judging by what the Taiwanese government does – whenever the state sector is involved, it’s a very good functionality,” she says. “So, I can’t comment on what will happen, but I would recommend Taiwanese trust their government.”