Taiwan-US Relations in 2024: First to Pass the Test

Often, Taiwan-US relations is seen as a singular issue among many in international politics. But given how interconnected the world is, Taiwan-US relations should be viewed in the context of international politics. In 2024, these are the global trends that will affect US-Taiwan relations:

1. General elections around the world in 2024 The countries holding national elections this year account for 41% of the world’s population and 42% of its GDP. Undoubtedly, the November presidential election in the United States is the most crucial. The public focus in each country holding elections this year will be on internal conflicts, from governments and political parties to the media and voters at large, while foreign affairs take a back seat.

2. The Russia-Ukraine war, the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and the confrontation between the United States and China will persist: The Russia-Ukraine war is in its third year. Since many countries will focus on their own elections, foreign aid to Ukraine will likely be more heavily scrutinized and politicized. Faced with Russia dragging on the war, it will be difficult for Ukraine to maintain international support. Meanwhile, the stalemate between Israel and Hamas and the confrontation between the United States and China since 2018 will continue.The Biden Administration will likely focus on its own reelection, and try to do less with regional conflicts and bilateral relations. Meanwhile, China’s economic growth has slowed down significantly, and China is expected to control the risk of confrontation with the US. Although conflicts and confrontations will continue in 2024, the situation should move towards control and tug-of-war.

3. Right-wing, anti-establishment forces are on the rise in Europe In 2023, we saw the resurgence of right-wing parties in Europe. The Guardian ran an interview with a 24-year-old man in the Netherlands, who said that he and his friends support far-right populist politicians based on housing issues. Similar sentiments were a central issue in Taiwan’s election this year, and drove young voters to anti-establishment candidates. This is a problem that exists in almost all developed countries, as a consequence of population and post-war economic development trends.

4. The global sense of deprivation between rich and poor continues to expand Scholars may have different perspectives on whether the gap between rich and poor continues to widen around the world. However, regardless of data, in the contemporary society of social media and constantly comparing oneself to others, it’s very hard not to feel the gap is widening. This sentiment of “relative deprivation” is bound to intensify, deepening the dissatisfaction and imbalance of people, and possibly lead to changes to social stability in various places.

5. Artificial intelligence technology development

The scope of development in 2024 may not be as explosive as ChatGPT in 2023, but artificial intelligence will be more deeply integrated into human life. While artificial intelligence will solve many problems for us, there will also be legal and ethical controversies.

2024 will be a year of focusing inwards for many countries and voters. Fatigue over entrenched conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza will further lead voters to tur their attention away from global affairs. Taiwan-U.S. relations: stability due to continuity First the conclusion: no matter what the outcome of the US election is, Taiwan-US relations will continue to deepen militarily and economically. Taiwan and the United States not only share strategic interests and values, but the foundation of trust in this relationship is solid. Neither strategic interest nor values can be changed overnight. Therefore, Taiwan-US relations will develop steadily in the foreseeable future. However, there are still a few things that can make Taiwan-US relations healthier. The first Taiwan-US relations milestone of the new Lai Ching-te Administration is Lai’s inaugural speech on May 20. As a global hegemon, the policy and strategic goal of the United States in East Asia is to “maintain regional stability,” and this goal will become even more important in the 2024 US election year. One of the important keys to Taiwan’s success in achieving this goal during the Ma and Tsai administrations is “predictability.” In other words, over the past sixteen years, the government’s words and actions have stayed within the range of US expectations. The United States can be fully prepared and respond in kind. It can also regard Taiwan as a partner in jointly controlling regional stability. During the election, presidential candidate Lai Ching-te emphasized that he would continue President Tsai’s foreign policies. He chose Bikhim Hsiao as his running mate, who is highly trusted by the United States. But it is still a new administration, and Washington does not understand Lai enough yet. Whether Taiwan and the United States can maintain the same trust as during the Tsai administration depends on the words and actions of the Lai Ching-te administration after taking office. The May 20 inaugural speech will be the first opportunity for the world to understand the new government’s direction on Taiwan’s international status, Taiwan’s diplomatic goals and the policies towards China and the United States. The specific language used will determine Taiwan’s image in the United States in the next four years. It is an anchor that sets the tone. Another factor is Taiwan’s confidence in its international positioning. In the past few years, Taiwan has become the focus of international media. The reasons include:

• Concerns about the confrontation between the United States and China and China’s authoritarian expansion,
• Comparisons between the Russia-Ukraine war and China-Taiwan relations,
• Taiwan’s excellent performance during the covid-19 epidemic,
• The significance of Taiwan’s high-end chips on the global economy,
• Taiwan’s progress on same-sex marriage to female leaders.

These developments have allowed Taiwan to gain the attention and favor of both conservatives and progressives. In contrast with focusing on its diplomatic obstables in the past, Taiwan has strengthened its confidence due to the international attention in the past few years. However, the upcoming international environment may not allow Taiwan to continue to receive such high international attention. First, as mentioned above, more countries will be focused inwards this year and pay less attention to Taiwan. Second, as the United States and China focus more on reining in tensions, the international community will focus more on substantive issues such as supply chain restructuring. These substantive topics are more technical and harder to understand for the international public at large. Of course, if China starts to carry out more intense civil and military attacks against Taiwan instead of staying within the “gray zone,” then attention to Taiwan is bound to increase again. Nicholas Kristof said in January in The New York Times that the United States should vigorously but low-key assist Taiwan in strengthening its national defense and avoid adding fuel to the fire with public words and deeds at a time of tension across the Taiwan Strait. The author believes that when US foreign aid is highly controversial and there is an urgent need to control US-China risks, low-key assistance to Taiwan in improving its self-defense capabilities will indeed be the next focus of the United States. The 2023 National Defense Authorization Act passed at the end of 2022 authorizes the US to help Taiwan build a “regional contingency arsenal.” The 2024 National Defense Authorization Act passed at the end of 2023 requires the Department of Defense to develop a set of institutionalized comprehensive training, consulting, and capability-building plans for Taiwan’s military. Both items are not as eye-catching as Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, but they lay the foundation for Taiwan’s national defense strength and Taiwan-US cooperation. Past research has found that highly symbolic actions such as Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan help increase Taiwan’s trust in the United States. However, this author hopes that Taiwan can decouple symbolic actions from trust in the United States. The Taiwanese public should pay more attention to the foundation of trust and the common strategic goals and values between the two countries. Symbolic actions are important, but given the nature of the situation, symbolic actions and attention will not always be at a high. Therefore, the Taiwanese public should instead look at the development of substantive relationships and remain confident. The same is true for international relations. Unless China escalates its words and deeds in the next few years, Taiwan’s international attention may not be able to return to the peak after the epidemic and during the 2024 election. The attention on Taiwan may have been caused by China, but Taiwan’s intrinsic value is not dependent on China. Regardless of whether the world pays attention to us or not, Taiwan’s value in democracy, economy and trade is irreplaceable. Taiwan in 2024 must recharge its batteries Imagine this situation: a classroom full of students are taking a test. One of the students finishes and passes the test first. She breathes a sigh of relief, and sits back to watch the other students. Taiwan is that student right now. Of course, Taiwan’s post-election politics and international circumstances are not easy at all. The political developments in other countries will also affect Taiwan. But for those of us who “finish the exam first”, maybe we can think about to do with this advantage? This author believes that while the world is focusing on the other test takers, Taiwan should take this time to recuperate. We have cultivated our medical system, reformed our national defense, and promoted the development of our own values for a long time. This is why, when the world encountered major crises, Taiwan was ready. In the same way, we must continue to move forward steadily, including in the development of artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies, in housing prices, alleviate the sense of deprivation between the rich and the poor, and tackle the demographic and women’s issues that developed countries will encounter. There is an urgent need for innovative policies around the world, and Taiwan has yet a chance to create precedents for others. Taiwan has won half the battle not because we have finished the exam, but because the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict provide Taiwan with valuable lessons on how to deter war together with our ally, the United States. While there are internal ideological disputes in European and American countries, Taiwan’s biggest ideological battle for a long time – identity – is moving towards convergence, allowing Taiwan to recharge its batteries, improve itself, and build a better foundation. Taiwan must be more confident, recognize its own achievements and value, and continue to move forward regardless of whether it has the spotlight or not.

(Feature photo by Frank Chang from Pixabay)