Understanding Lai Ching-te’s Stance on Sovereignty and China

China purposefully twisted Lai Ching-te’s inaugural speech 

The policy stance on Taiwan’s sovereignty and China that President Lai Ching-te expressed in his inaugural speech was a gesture of goodwill towards the People’s Republic of China. It was intended to be a step towards improving Taiwan-China relations. 

Sadly, China did not correctly understand that, nor did China respond directly. 

Instead, China’s response was to strongly rebuke Lai’s speech as an “independence manifesto,” and conducted air and sea war exercises around Taiwan. 

In the recent Shangri-La Dialogues, China’s defense minister also echoed this attitude, threatening Taiwan with violence.

China’s response is not surprising. It has been four months since Lai was elected, and China has already made up its mind about Lai. 

Looking at the big picture, it’s clear that China has decided a long time ago how it will respond to Lai. China wasn’t hoping for anything from Lai; its intimidation tactics would have been the same no matter what Lai says. 

China’s response itself deserves its own analysis. Here I’d like to look at Lai’s speech itself, so that observers in Taiwan and abroad can better understand Lai’s stance and direction. 

Not an “independence manifesto”

In Taiwan, President Lai’s inaugural speech was not considered to be particularly aggressive. The commentaries from various political parties and the media reflect the fact that the Taiwanese public thought the speech was rather uninteresting. Only China saw the speech as if it were a monster.

The perspective that really matters here is that of the Taiwanese people. If the Taiwanese people felt Lai’s speech didn’t say anything shocking, that means the speech reflects the consensus and common sense in Taiwan. As such, China has no reason to have such an allergic reaction.  

In fact, Lai’s speech retained room for flexibility for Taiwan-China relations. That is because, for the first time, the president’s speech bases Taiwan’s sovereignty solely on the Constitution of the Republic of China.  

“Right in the first chapter of our Constitution, it says that “The sovereignty of the Republic of China shall reside in the whole body of citizens,” and that “Persons possessing the nationality of the Republic of China shall be citizens of the Republic of China.” These two articles tell us clearly: The Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to each other.” 

This formulation is actually different from the classical theory of Taiwan Independence. Classical Taiwan Independence theory does not base Taiwan’s sovereignty on the Republic of China constitution, but rather further back into history. 

When I heard the speech on May 20th, I immediately noted on social media that this is a new narrative for a leader of the Democratic Progressive Party. 

In short, Lai’s speech indicates “Taiwan” and “The Republic of China” have merged into one, and Taiwan’s sovereignty is based on the existing constitution from the Republic of China. 

The words “tell us clearly” –- in other words, “therefore” — is especially interesting. It means that one can draw the conclusion that Taiwan and China are not subordinate to each other solely from the Republic of China Constitution itself, and that this is an obvious fact. 

In other words, Lai eschews the traditional, classical Taiwan Independence theory as the basis that both sides are not subordinate to each other. He is basing this conclusion on the Republic of China Constitution. 

Perhaps the Chinese officials responsible for Taiwan do not have enough understanding of the ideological foundations of Taiwan’s political positions, and so they did not understand that focusing on the Republic of China Constitution to find common ground with China is, from Lai’s perspective, a big step towards goodwill.

Lai says again he will not change the name of the state

Also in the inaugural speech: “ Some call this land the Republic of China, some call it the Republic of China Taiwan, and some, Taiwan; but whichever of these names we ourselves or our international friends choose to call our nation, we will resonate and shine all the same.”

This means he is not seeking to change the name of the state; in other words, maintaining the status quo. 

In September of 2017 when he was questioned in the Legislative Yuan, he said the now infamous “practical worker for Taiwan’s independence,” but what is often left out is that he also said “we are a sovereign state called The Republic of China, and we will not separately declare independence.”  

On the campaign trail last year, he also said, “Taiwan’s sovereignty and independence belongs to the 23 million people of Taiwan, and do not belong to the People’s Republic of China. The ROC and the PRC are not subordinate to each other, and that is the definition of Taiwan independence…” 

Lai’s position cannot be more clear: the status quo IS independence. Taiwan need not, and will not, seek any further actions regarding Taiwan’s sovereignty. He has already cited the Republic of China Constitution as the legal basis for the two sides not having any jurisdiction over each other. 

Understanding Lai’s views on Taiwan and China

Lai’s views on Taiwan and China can be organized by different periods: when he was an elected representative and mayor, when he was the premier and vice president, and the ongoing period as president.  

As a political leader, his views have evolved according to his personal experiences, the shifts within his party, and changes in Taiwan’s international circumstances.  

To understand Lai, one must look at how his views have evolved over the thirty years from the late 1980s to the early 2020s. 

When Lai first entered politics, the DPP was still a new opposition party. As a member of the New Tide Faction, he adopted the faction’s Taiwan independence stance. 

Starting in 1996, the New Tide Faction spearheaded the DPP’s shift towards a more pragmatic form of Taiwan independence. This movement culminated in the “Resolution on Taiwan’s Future” of 1999, a resolution that effectively amended the DPP’s party charter. The resolution states: “Taiwan is a sovereign state…according to its current constitution, it is called The Republic of China, but it and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to each other.”

The most important factor for this shift is that the DPP leaders realized the constraint from the US, which at the time stemmed from the US’s engagement with China. 

The DPP’s pragmatic “independence” stance directly contributed to the DPP winning the 2000 presidential election. Even if Lai was not a core part of this process, he is well aware of it.

Lai as premier and vice president

After Lai was appointed premier in September 2017, he stated he was a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence.” To explain what “pragmatic” and “worker” means, he immediately proposed “three pragmatic directions” and “six concrete proposals.” 

The three pragmatic directions are: Taiwan is a sovereign state that does not need a declaration of independence; Taiwan’s future can only be decided by the Taiwanese people; and developing Taiwan’s economy to strengthen Taiwan. 

The six proposals specifically emphasize “cross-strait interaction with confidence,” “finding commonalities while retaining differences,” “build peace on mutual understanding, empathy, tolerance, and resolution.” 

As vice president (and as presidential candidate), his op-ed in the Washington Post in July 2023 outlined his Four Pillars of Peace: strengthening defense, building economic security, a stable and principled leadership of cross-strait relations, and deterring war by values-based diplomacy.

None of these items push the so-called “independence” agenda.

Lai has not strayed from Tsai’s path

The former president Tsai Ing-wen put forth “four determinations” in her 2021 National Day speech: a free and democratic constitution, the ROC and the PRC are not subordinate to each other, sovereignty must not be absorbed, and that the future of the ROC Taiwan must be decided by the will of the Taiwanese people. 

Lai’s inaugural speech follows the same contours. Looking at Lai’s stance over time, he is trying to strengthen the status quo, not to change it.

Not independence but attitude

Certainly China will retort that Lai is merely making a temporary compromise with current reality, but he is still a die-hard “independence” believer in his bones. If this is China’s attitude towards Taiwan, China will find that everyone is a believer in his or her bones. 

Every leader will face some discrepancy between what he truly believes, and what he seeks to accomplish in reality. In the real world, all anyone can do is hold on to their ideal vision, but find peace through mutual respect and coexistence. This is what negotiation and compromise are for.  

Beijing is trying to “win hearts and minds” in Taiwan, but insists on scaring Taiwan with war. This time, Beijing used Lai’s inaugural speech as an excuse, which does not stand up to scrutiny. Better for China to put away their sabers to find true peace with Taiwan. 

Editor’s note: Jou was involved in the process within the DPP to review its charter, which eventually led to the party’s Resolution on Taiwan’s Future in 1999.

(Featured photo by Taiwan’s Presidential Office)