Trump 2.0’s Strong Comeback and Taiwan’s Strategic Options – Part II

This is Part two of a three-part series, a translation of the original 川普2.0強勢回歸與台灣的對應選擇 by I-Chung Lai (賴怡忠), a journalist and columnist. Originally published by Voice Tank. Translation by Stacy Tang.

***

Trump’s return: China awaits uncertain future

In terms of US-China relations, China definitely feels uneasy about Trump’s return to office. Back in 2016, when Xi Jinping congratulated Biden on his election, he expressed hopes for building a “new model of major-power relations” between the US and China. This time, however, Xi’s message to Trump is more reserved, with a cautious tone, stating, “cooperation benefits both, while confrontation hurts both”—a far cry from the optimistic language of collaboration.

On the other hand, Xi’s message did emphasize “mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation” as guiding principles for US-China relations. Notably, China’s Vice President Han Zheng also extended congratulations to Vice President-elect Vance, a diplomatic gesture not seen in the past. Xi’s message omitted the usual reference to “respecting core interests,” and Han’s outreach to the incoming US vice president suggests that China may be softening its approach toward the United States.

For China, Trump’s return to power means that the coordinated pressure campaign Biden led with US allies over the past four years will likely ease. However, the belief China had that US-China relations wouldn’t spiral out of control under Biden’s managed competition approach has now gone. Trump has made it clear that he blames his loss four years ago on the “Wuhan virus,” and holds Xi Jinping accountable. Additionally, Trump remains frustrated with China’s failure to fulfill commitments from the 2020 Phase One trade deal, and during his campaign, he repeatedly mentioned imposing high tariffs on China—a stance backed by his team. When asked how the US would respond if China attacked Taiwan, Trump even suggested bombing Beijing and imposing even higher tariffs (100%-200%) that could trigger a full US-China economic decoupling—scenarios that Beijing is certainly keen to avoid.

Given that China still on the Section 301 trade sanctions list, the likelihood of Trump reimposing sweeping tariffs on China has only increased. As China’s economy falters and is reluctant to reform or open its domestic market, China has been relying on exports to alleviate its economic pressures. However, this reliance could lead to further US-China tensions in a Trump 2.0 era, exacerbating China’s economic issues. To say that Xi Jinping is feeling the heat right now would be no exaggeration.

Support for Ukraine faces uncertainties; Israel celebrates; Iran grapples with increased pressure

China is not the only country deeply concerned about Trump’s potential victory; other nations are closely watching the US election as well. Israel and Hungary, particularly Prime Minister Viktor Orban, would strongly support a Trump win. In contrast, Ukraine would be highly worried, and Iran may be the most anxious about the outcome. While Russia is often seen as the nation that would benefit the most from a Trump victory, the reality may not align with that expectation.

Although Trump made many statements during the campaign, it’s important to distinguish between his personal remarks and those echoed by his staff. If the same ideas were not only expressed by Trump but also endorsed by his team, this indicates a consensus within the Trump administration, rather than just a campaign rhetoric. With this in mind, both Trump and his team argued before the election that the US should reduce its aid to Ukraine, emphasizing that Europe should take the lead on this issue while the US focuses on its growing competition with China. They viewed assistance to Ukraine as a diversion of American resources from more critical priorities.

Therefore, it is highly likely that Trump’s administration will scale back military aid to Ukraine. This could explain why Ukraine decided to launch an offensive into Russia’s Kursk region in August, despite the already critical situation in eastern Ukraine. The move is aimed at gaining leverage for potential peace negotiations, hoping to use Kursk as a bargaining chip to reclaim some of the eastern Ukrainian territories and Crimea occupied by Russia.

On the other hand, while Trump is known to have personal ties with Putin, assuming that a Trump victory will align with Putin’s interests may be misguided. This is because Trump is likely to push for increased US exports of oil and natural gas, which could drive down energy prices and severely damage Russia’s war economy. For Russia, already in a difficult position and relying on North Korean military support, this would only exacerbate its difficulties.

Furthermore, if a peace agreement were to be reached, it is likely that Ukraine would be required to cede the territories currently occupied by Russia, but in return, Ukraine could be granted membership in NATO as compensation for its territorial losses. In this scenario, Russia would not only lose Ukraine as a strategic buffer but also face long-term strategic confrontation with NATO, placing Russia in a more vulnerable position.

Separately, a Trump victory would likely heighten tensions in the Middle East. Israel would face fewer restrictions in dealing with Hamas, Hezbollah and other Iran-affiliated forces, and the possibility of escalating attacks on Syria and direct confrontations with Iran would increase. After a year of warfare, Israel has nearly decimated the leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah, severely undermining Iran’s influence in the region and reversing the strategic advantages Iran had gained post-9/11. Trump, who has always supported Israel and harbored deep resentment toward Iran, authorized the assassination of the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in early 2020. Upon his return to office, Trump is expected to further loosen restrictions on Israeli military actions. Additionally, the Trump administration might push forward the “Abraham Accords,” strongly persuading Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel, aiming to strengthen efforts to contain Iran’s influence in the region.

For Taiwan, the evolving situations in both the Ukraine war and the Middle East conflict must be closely monitored. Many members of Trump’s team advocate for reducing support to Ukraine in order to focus on China and help Taiwan, disagreeing with the argument that failing to expel Russia from Ukraine would encourage Chinese aggression toward Taiwan. Meanwhile, the developments in the Middle East conflict may alleviate Israel’s current unfavorable position in international opinion. Under a Trump administration, the US-Israel relationship is expected to shift, and ties with Saudi Arabia may also strengthen. Iran, however, will face heightened pressure. These shifts are likely to have significant implications for Taiwan.

(Featured photo by Kevin Lamarque / REUTERS)