Taiwan at the Crossroads of the US-China Rivalry 

Overview

The escalating U.S.-China rivalry is reshaping the global order, with Taiwan emerging as a focal point in this confrontation. This article examines the strategic importance of Taiwan, the vulnerabilities facing both the United States and Taiwan, and the urgent measures required to counter China’s growing influence. By analyzing military, economic, and political challenges, this article underscores why Taiwan’s stability is pivotal to preserving democracy and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific Region and beyond.

China rivalry’s far-reaching implications

As the United States prepares for its next administration, the U.S.-China rivalry stands at a critical juncture. The stakes couldn’t be higher—not just for the United States, but for the global liberal order that has underpinned peace and prosperity for decades. At the heart of this struggle lies Taiwan, an island whose strategic importance and democratic values make it indispensable. Taiwan’s significance extends far beyond its borders, intertwining its fate with the stability and security of the entire Indo-Pacific region. Understanding why is key to addressing the challenges and opportunities we face today.

China’s meteoric rise as an industrial and military giant has presented threats to the United States and the liberal allies. Since joining the World Trade Organization, China’s growth has exceeded Western expectations, leveraging its authoritarian efficiency to dominate global manufacturing and build the world’s largest navy. For America to lead again, it must act decisively.

Simulations conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) indicate that the U.S. could exhaust its supply of long-range precision-guided munitions within a week during a Taiwan Strait conflict. In addition, Chinese cyberattack could cripple the island’s critical infrastructures and energy supplies, as highlighted by Antonio Graceffo in “Taiwan’s nonmilitary vulnerabilities” **published in the Taipei Times. This would leave the island isolated and vulnerable to being taken by the PRC at minimal cost. These scenarios underscore the urgency for decisive action. Cyberwarfare, advanced missile systems, and naval superiority have become pivotal for projecting power and deterring aggression. China’s rapid advancements place the U.S. at a disadvantage, with its aging industrial base struggling to meet modern demands.

According to Rush Doshi’s article “The Trump Administration Challenge,” published in Foreign Affairs, addressing these gaps requires bold measures. These include  expanding unmanned systems and missile capabilities in the Indo-Pacific to strengthen deterrence and secure vital waterways like the Taiwan Strait. Additionally, investing in revitalizing shipbuilding and defense manufacturing is essential to ensure technological superiority and sustain maritime dominance.

Without such investments, America risks ceding global leadership to China. Citizens and policymakers alike must rally behind a shared vision of resilience, ensuring policies crucial to national security are prioritized and executed.

Furthermore, countering China isn’t a solo mission. The U.S. must strengthen alliances but avoid incremental approaches that embolden Beijing. Democracies must act decisively while authoritarian regimes exploit hesitation.

Consider this: while democracies deliberate, Beijing adapts and grows stronger. The balance of power continues to shift. This isn’t just a geopolitical matter—it has to do with the legacy we leave for future generations. By fostering alliances that enhance security and advocating for policies that uphold shared values, we can collectively ensure a stable and democratic future.

Why Taiwan matters

This issue of Taiwan transcends geopolitical strategy—it defines the future of international norms, trade security, and democratic resilience. Taiwan’s survival against China’s assertive tactics will determine whether democracies can stand together to uphold shared values or yield to authoritarian encroachment. The stakes demand global attention and action.

Taiwan is more than a flashpoint—it is the litmus test of America’s commitment to democracy. Taiwan’s strategic significance comes at a price. The U.S. benefits from Taiwan as a crucial military outpost and vibrant market but continues to grapple with doubts with regards to  fully recognizing Taiwan’s sovereignty. This underscores the complexities of the relationship and the need for mutual trust.

Over the past eight years, Taiwan has bolstered its defense, extended conscription, and prioritized asymmetric capabilities like drones and missiles. Yet challenges remain. Political divisions and Beijing’s aggressive posturing leave no room for complacency.

For example, the semiconductors in your smartphone or laptop likely came from Taiwan. If Taiwan falls, global supply chains could collapse, triggering an economic crisis. Taiwan’s security is global security. Energy is another critical factor. Taiwan’s reserves are alarmingly low—natural gas lasts just eight days, coal 42 days, and energy self-sufficiency only 2%. As an island highly reliant on foreign energy supply, a Chinese blockade could bring Taiwan to its knees without a single bullet fired. This raises a crucial question: What measures should the international community take to ensure Taiwan and the U.S. are prepared to avert such a catastrophe?

Ensuring energy resilience isn’t simply stockpiling resources, but rather a comprehensive plan to build sustainable infrastructure and forging partnerships to mitigate risks. Taiwan must strengthen its ties not only with Quad nations (Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S.)—which share mutual security interests in the Indo-Pacific—but also with European partners and ASEAN nations. These alliances can collectively counterbalance China’s growing influence and ensure a resilient, rules-based order in the region. Furthermore, democratic cooperation on economic, technological, and security issues will bolster Taiwan’s international standing and reinforce its role as a critical partner in maintaining stability.

For the United States, standing with Taiwan means more than military commitments. It means fostering economic ties, protecting shared values, and recognizing Taiwan’s efforts to contribute to global stability. This partnership transcends regional politics; it defines the strength of democratic alliances.

This isn’t just about any single administration or leader. It’s about the world we are shaping and the values we choose to defend. Taiwan’s survival is not only a test of American resolve but a reflection of whether democracies can stand firm against authoritarian aggression.

Conclusion

How much is democracy worth? How much is peace worth? These are questions we must answer not just with words but with action. By raising awareness, advocating for stronger partnerships, and staying engaged, each of us has a role to play. The time to act—for the U.S., for Taiwan, for the world—is now.

(Featured photo by cytis on Pixabay)