The Future of Taiwan-Europe Relations: How a New Trump Administration Could Reshape These Ties

This article was originally published by Global Taiwan Institute in its weekly newsletter, The Global Taiwan Brief, Vol. 10, Issue 4. Used with permission. To get the Global Taiwan Brief in your inbox every week, subscribe at globaltaiwan.org/subscribe. Nina Miholjčić Ivković is a researcher based in Serbia, with a background in political science and international relations.

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The question of how a new Trump Administration would affect the European Union’s connections with Taiwan hinges on several factors, from the United States’ stance on China to Europe’s own strategic interests in the region. [1] If we look at Trump’s first term and his approach to foreign policy during this time, his administration took a more confrontational stance toward China, which was reflected in its stronger support for Taiwan. This included arms sales, official visits, and a broader endorsement of Taiwan’s international presence. However, Europe’s approach to Taiwan during Trump’s presidency was more cautious, with many European leaders striving to balance their economic and diplomatic relations with China while cautiously supporting Taiwan’s democratic system. The European Union’s “One China Policy”—which recognizes the government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China—still remains a core tenet, even as it has called for greater space for Taiwan on the international stage.

If a new Trump Administration strengthens US-Taiwan relations, especially given Trump’s hardline rhetoric towards China and his “America First” doctrine during his first term, Europe could face a challenging dilemma. It would need to balance support for Taiwan with its economic and diplomatic ties to China, particularly in areas such as trade, technology, and climate change. As the second Trump Administration prepares to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape shaped by the US-China rivalry and the Taiwan issue, Europe is likely to respond cautiously, aiming to safeguard its own interests in the region while managing the growing tension between Washington and Beijing. The extent of Europe’s engagement with Taiwan will largely depend on how the geopolitical dynamics unfold, and how both the United States and China position themselves in this high-stakes geopolitical game.

Lessons from the First Trump Term and the Biden Administration 

During his first term, Donald Trump pursued a largely favorable foreign policy toward Taiwan. His administration implemented several measures to strengthen bilateral relations, including authorizing substantial arms sales, increasing US Navy patrols in the Taiwan Strait, and dispatching numerous high-ranking officials to engage with Taiwanese leaders. Additionally, shortly after the 2016 election, Trump held a phone conversation with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), marking the first direct communication between a US president (or president-elect) and a Taiwanese leader since at least 1979. Taiwan also benefited indirectly from Trump’s push for a “trade war” with China, as American companies sought alternatives to Chinese manufacturing.

The first Trump Administration’s approach to Taiwan, marked by a more open stance compared to previous administrations, put a greater pressure on the European Union to navigate its relations with both Taiwan and China carefully. During Trump’s first term, the European Union navigated a delicate balancing act. While it supported Taiwan in certain areas like international participation (on technical and humanitarian grounds) and engaged with Taiwan on non-political issues, it did so within the context of the EU’s own version of “strategic ambiguity,” which aimed to avoid provoking China. The European Union’s primary concern remained its economic and geopolitical ties to China—and thus, its actions towards Taiwan were measured and designed not to escalate tensions. This nuanced approach allowed the European Union to continue its interactions with Taiwan without directly challenging China’s sovereignty claims over the island.

The European Union was more aligned with the United States during the Biden Administration in terms of advocating for Taiwan. However, Europe still maintained a more cautious and diplomatic approach compared to the United States, with a focus on maintaining economic relations with China while supporting Taiwan’s interests in a non-confrontational manner. The tone and level of engagement with Taiwan evolved somewhat with changes in US leadership. During Trump’s first term, the approach was largely passive; but under Biden, the United States adopted a more active role in supporting Taiwan’s democracy and security, while also strongly condemning China’s military provocations against the island.

In 2021, the European Union placed significant emphasis on Taiwan in its Indo-Pacific strategy, recognizing that the use of force in the Taiwan Strait could directly affect European security and prosperity. Moreover, US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022, which prompted China to conduct large-scale military exercises around the island (see here and here), played a pivotal role in revitalizing European-Taiwan relations. This development alerted policymakers in Brussels and across European capitals—prompting them to recognize that the escalating geopolitical tensions between Beijing, Taipei, and Washington could have far-reaching consequences, potentially influencing US-European relations in ways previously unanticipated. However, the European Union remains internally divided on its stance on Taiwan, with certain member states aligning more closely with China, while others stress the importance of supporting Taiwan in its efforts to preserve stability and uphold democratic values. This inner divergence further complicates the already intricate geopolitical landscape, particularly within the context of the EU-China-Taiwan dynamic, in addition to the influence of US foreign policy.

Taiwan-Europe Dynamics in the Second Trump Administration

Trump’s unpredictability and unapologetic rhetoric have consistently been a source of frustration for both his critics and allies. As his new term unfolds, the European Union, China, and Taiwan once again find themselves in a complex geopolitical position—one that demands more nuanced strategic planning and a measured response to an increasingly dynamic global landscape. During his first term, Donald Trump said little about Taiwan; but in the 2024 campaign, he became unexpectedly more vocal and provocative in his statements on Taiwan policy. Trump has publicly voiced his dissatisfaction with Taiwan, asserting that the island has appropriated the United States’ “chip business,” and emphasizing that it should bear the financial responsibility for its own defense. Furthermore, when asked if the US military would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack, Trump remained notably ambiguous, stating, “If I answer that question, it will put me in a very bad negotiating position.” This contrasts significantly with Biden’s more clear and direct response. Such ambiguity is precisely what troubles Europe, which is already grappling with its own internal divisions over the Taiwan issue, as well as security uncertainties stemming from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

Recent threats by Trump to impose tariffs on imported chips, pharmaceuticals, and steel in an effort to pressure producers to manufacture them in the United States have caused increased uncertainties and concerns in Taiwan and the broader world. Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductors could insert further complexity into Taiwan-Europe relations by disrupting semiconductor supply chains crucial to European industries. Europe might push back against such tariffs to protect its economic interests, potentially leading to closer trade ties with Taiwan. At the same time, it could create tensions between Europe and the United States, as European nations balance their alliance with the United States against the need for stable access to critical technology. This could also encourage Europe to explore alternatives to both the United States and Taiwan, potentially deepening engagement with China. China, which is working to build its own semiconductor industry, might seek to expand its influence in Europe by offering alternative deals or fostering closer ties through trade agreements, which could weaken the EU-Taiwan connection.

However, it is important to note that Taiwan occupies a strategically vital position, both for regional security and for the defense of critical US interests in the Indo-Pacific. It is also home to the world’s largest semiconductor producer, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the globe’s most advanced chips. A potential Chinese attack or blockade would significantly disrupt semiconductor production, leading to far-reaching economic consequences globally. This is why global and regional powers are closely monitoring the evolving geopolitical dynamics surrounding the island. The United States must also be cautious in altering its policy toward Taiwan.

Despite Trump’s unfavorable rhetoric toward Taiwan, the island’s significant geopolitical and geostrategic leverage remains impossible to ignore for the United States. Furthermore, Trump’s selections for key administration positions—such as Representative Mike Waltz’s nomination for National Security Advisor and Senator Marco Rubio’s appointment as Secretary of State, both of whom are staunch China hawks and strong supporters of Taiwan’s defense—suggest that a second Trump term would maintain a firm stance on China. This could further strengthen US-Taiwan relations—or at the very least, sustain the positive trajectory of these relations from his first term and build on the progress made during Biden’s administration. Should US-Taiwan relations remain steady, the European Union will likely continue its cautious balancing act, maintaining informal yet supportive relations with Taipei while avoiding direct confrontations with Beijing.

Concluding Remarks

The future of Taiwan-Europe relations under a new Trump Administration is poised to be shaped by a complex interplay of geopolitical factors, including US-China tensions, the European Union’s strategic interests, and the evolving role of Taiwan in global security and economic dynamics. While a second Trump term may signal a more confrontational stance towards China, the European Union’s position will likely remain cautious, balancing its economic ties with Beijing and its growing support for Taiwan’s democratic values. The European Union’s approach will continue to be one of geopolitical strategic ambiguity, seeking to safeguard its own interests without exacerbating tensions with China.

However, if Trump’s unfavorable rhetoric towards Taiwan translates into official policy, the global semiconductor supply chain—and other critical issues—could come into sharper focus. In such a scenario, Europe might choose to either deepen its engagement with Taiwan or turn to China for enhanced technological relations. Either option would require careful diplomacy, as the European Union navigates the competing pressures from both the United States and China. In any case, the European Union’s path forward will demand flexibility and astute decision-making as it responds to the evolving dynamics of US foreign policy and the broader geopolitical landscape.

While the European Union has its own priorities and often pursues policies independent of the United States, the broader geopolitical situation requires Europe to stay flexible and maintain strong alliances. The European Union considers its close relationship with the United States essential for European security, while China is viewed as both a competitor and a rival. Both nations shape Europe’s approach to global diplomacy, including its stance on Taiwan. Ultimately, the European Union is more aligned with the United States than with China, primarily because of shared security interests and values, a dynamic that also shapes its relationship with Taiwan. For this reason, the European Union’s stance on Taiwan will likely be influenced by the US approach to the island, especially in situations involving heightened security concerns.

The main point: As Europe considers its approach towards Taiwan in the coming years, it will be influenced by the Trump Administration’s approach. If Trump’s unfavorable approach toward Taiwan is translated into official US policy, this is likely to push Europe closer to Taiwan or China, and the European Union will have to balance EU-US relations against the need for stable access to critical technology.

[1] “Europe” and the “European Union” are used interchangeably in this article, referring to a unique partnership among 27 European countries, also known as Member States or EU countries.

(Featured photo by Xabi Oregi on Pexels)