Taiwan’s Strategic Awakening: Breaking Illusions, Shaping Destiny

Challenging Assumptions

Taiwan’s security strategy has long been shaped by three flawed assumptions: first, that China is on the verge of invasion; second, that the United States will always intervene; and third, that internal divisions are secondary to external threats. These assumptions have dictated policies for decades, but they no longer hold up to scrutiny. Taiwan must reshape its strategic thinking to ensure long-term survival.

The Myth of Imminent Invasion

China operates on a long-term strategy prioritizing economic leverage, political influence and psychological pressureover outright military action. While military incursions across the Taiwan Strait have increased – over 1,700 in 2023alone according to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence, these are designed to normalize intimidation, force Taiwan into costly military responses and gradually erode its resilience rather than signal immediate invasion.

Despite its growing military capabilities, China has refrained from large-scale military aggression, even during previous Taiwan Strait crises. Historically, China has escalated tensions during the Taiwan Strait crises through military posturing, such as bombarding Taiwan-controlled islands (1954–1955, 1958) and conducting missile tests (1995–1996). However, in each case, China refrained from full-scale invasion. These incidents illustrate China’s preference for intimidation and pressure over direct military conquest.

Despite significant challenges, the risk of an all-out invasion of Taiwan remains high due to China’s strategic ambitionsand military buildup. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has developed advanced capabilities and increased military incursions, signalling preparation for potential conflict. While an invasion would face logistical difficulties, potential U.S. intervention and severe economic fallout, Beijing may still act if it perceives peaceful unification as unattainable. Thus, despite the high costs, the possibility of military action remains a serious concern.

More likely than a full-scale invasion are alternative coercion strategies. A grey-zone blockade could restrict vital imports such as energy and food without crossing the threshold of war. Cyber and financial warfare could disrupt Taiwan’s banking system, power grids, and stock market, causing panic without direct military confrontation. Political encroachment through economic agreements fostering deeper dependencies, much like China’s approach to Hong Kongbefore 2019, is another serious threat. Taiwan must prepare not just for war but for sustained, multifaceted coercion.

U.S. Commitments: A Calculated Gamble

Taiwan’s security has long depended on the assumption of unwavering U.S. support. However, historical patterns suggest that Washington’s commitments shift based on strategic interests. From Vietnam to Ukraine, U.S. foreign policy has often been dictated by pragmatic calculations rather than moral obligations. In Vietnam, it withdrew supportin 1973 despite years of involvement, leading to the fall of Saigon in 1975. Similarly, in Ukraine, initial strong support has faced growing political and economic constraints, highlighting the U.S.’s tendency to prioritize pragmatism over unwavering commitments.

Unlike Japan or South Korea, Taiwan lacks a formal defence treaty with the U.S. The Taiwan Relations Act provides arms sales but no guarantees of intervention.

The United States maintains a position of strategic ambiguity towards Taiwan, committing to its defence without explicitly promising military action. Domestic politics shape this approach, with Republican administrations typically offering stronger military support, while Democrats lean toward diplomatic measures to manage China. However, both parties broadly support Taiwan. The debate between strategic ambiguity and clarity includes calls for a firmer U.S. stance to deter Chinese aggression. Taiwan must recognize the fluidity of U.S. policy and adapt its strategies, focusing on proactive defence, effective diplomacy and reducing reliance on external guarantees.

However, dismissing U.S. commitment entirely overlooks key factors. Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, particularly TSMC’s dominance, makes it a linchpin in global technological security. A Chinese takeover of Taiwan would shift power in ways that threaten U.S. strategic interests. Moreover, U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacific, particularly with Japan, Australia and the Philippines, rely on a credible deterrence posture. This makes Taiwan’s security integral to regional stability.

Rather than assuming permanent U.S. backing or fearing inevitable abandonment, Taiwan must focus on increasing its strategic indispensability through defence partnerships, regional security dialogues, and economic diversification.

Internal Divisions: The Hidden Weakness

While external threats dominate headlines, Taiwan’s most pressing challenge may come from within. Political polarization has eroded national resilience, with deep ideological divides between the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the opposition Kuomintang (KMT). Beijing exploits these fractures, leveraging economic incentives to cultivate pro-China factions within Taiwan’s business and political circles.

Taiwan’s domestic stability is further tested by budgetary battles and legislative gridlock. Recent proposals to slash defence spending by 28% highlight the precarious balance between economic constraints and security priorities. Legislative clashes, recall campaigns and growing public discontent threaten to weaken Taiwan’s unity at a time when cohesion is most needed.

Taiwan has extended mandatory military service to one year to boost defence readiness amid tensions with China. While most Taiwanese oppose unification, confidence in resisting an invasion is mixed, with younger generations prioritizing economic stability over military concerns. However, national identity remains strong, and willingness to defend Taiwan has been stable. Strengthening public awareness and resilience is key to ensuring long-term security.

Psychological warfare is already at play, shaping public sentiment toward accommodation rather than resistance. If Taiwan is to deter Beijing effectively, it must reinforce a sense of national unity that transcends party politics.

China’s Strategy: The Squeeze, Not the Strike

Beijing may very well not need an invasion to subjugate Taiwan; it merely needs to tighten the noose. Economic dependence remains one of China’s most effective weapons. Over 40% of Taiwan’s exports go to China, creating a strategic vulnerability, according to Taiwan’s Bureau of Foreign Trade. While Taiwan is attempting to diversify trade, breaking free from economic entanglement requires sustained policy shifts.

China also exerts influence through infiltration and propaganda. Recent espionage cases, including a former Taiwanese officer attempting to recruit a military pilot for defection, highlight Beijing’s covert operations. Cultural and media influence campaigns further seek to shape public opinion, normalizing unification narratives. Several Taiwanese celebrities have publicly endorsed China’s stance on unification, often reposting pro-Beijing messages on social media, sparking political backlash.

To counteract this, Taiwan must bolster internal defences, not just militarily but also against economic coercion and information warfare. Strengthening cybersecurity, enhancing counter-espionage measures and fostering media literacyare crucial components of Taiwan’s long-term resilience.

The Path Forward: Strength Through Independence

Taiwan must dictate its own future, ensuring its security through resilience rather than dependence. By strengthening asymmetric defence capabilities, reinforcing civil preparedness and expanding its global partnerships beyond the U.S., Taiwan can become a formidable and self-reliant force. Economic diversification, political unity and a clear-eyed assessment of threats will be critical. Taiwan’s survival depends not on external guarantees but on its own strategic choices.

Taiwan stands at a crossroads. It can either cling to outdated assumptions or forge a new path of strategic strength. The choice is clear: Taiwan must act decisively now to secure its sovereignty for future generations.

(Featured photo by M Venter on Pexels)