While Chinese political warfare aims to corrode democratic institutions in Taiwan and create opportunities which can be exploited, much of its raison d’être is also attributable to the need for the Chinese Communist Party to convince the Chinese public that things are moving in the right direction—despite all the evidence to the contrary.
Once RCEP is formally established in 2020, Taiwan’s exclusion from RCEP will likely impact the island’s competitiveness and trade and investment with RCEP countries.
Reagan’s memo and the prequel in his note continue to direct US policy and assure Taiwan. In turn, Taiwan remains obligated to give assurances about transforming its military for new asymmetric warfare to deter and defend against China’s growing threat.
Taiwanese perceptions of maintaining diplomatic recognition are influenced by views of China and concerns about aid requests from recognizing countries, with little variation by party. However, party identification largely explains who the public blames for recent diplomatic losses.
China’s economic outreach in Latin America and the Caribbean has eroded Taiwan’s diplomatic presence in the region, but mixed investment results and divided public reception will complicate China’s attempts to cultivate its new relations.